Is Andy Burnham most likely to boost Labour’s election chances?

A new ORB survey for The Independent today shows that voters consider Andy Burnham the candidate most likely to improve Labour’s chances at the next election. Rather than survey voting intention, the research asks people to consider which candidate they believe to be the likeliest votewinner for the party at the next election. The results were:

Andy Burnham 36%, Liz Kendall 25%, Yvette Cooper 20%, Jeremy Corbyn 18%

However, there are elements of the results that all campaigns would point to as a victory  for their candidate. When asked the opposite question, Kendall was the candidate found least likely to cost Labour votes – 19% said she would harm Labour’s chances, while 22% said the same of Burnham, 26% of Cooper and 33% of Corbyn.

Kendall scored highly among young voters, with 43% of the 18-24 year olds bracket believing she was Labour’s best electoral asset. Cooper is favoured among more women than men, while Burnham shows strong support in the North West.

Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, will be pleased that he polls so closely to other candidates. Having reached the ballot by securing the nominations of MPs who do not support him, we are yet to see an opinion survey that leaves him trailing so far as to be dismissed out of hand. Even if he does finish last, he looks likely to win enough support that his voters’ second preferences will play a big role in deciding the next leader.

UPDATE: Team Liz say they are pleased with the results, and that is shows Kendall has established herself among the frontrunners: