Jeremy Corbyn struggling to convince marginal seat swing voters, research finds

Jeremy Corbyn is struggling to connect with swing voters in one of the country’s most crucial bellwether seats – but potential future Tory leaders are also viewed with suspicion.

Focus groups carried out with former Labour voters in Nuneaton found that Jeremy Corbyn was perceived as “scruffy”, “beige” and “old-fashioned”, with some saying that they could not imagine voting for Labour with him as leader.

Prior to last year Nuneaton has only been won three times by the Conservatives since the Second World War – in 1983, 1987 and 2010. The point on election night it was revealed that the Tories had held on to seat was seen by many as the moment it was clear Labour were going to lose – and the fact that the Tories had doubled their majority was the first inkling for many that the exit poll had in fact understated the scale of the defeat.

The constituency, which was 37th on Labour’s target seat list, became symbolic of the party’s failure to win back voters who had left Labour for the Conservatives in 2o1o, and became the location for the first televised hustings of last year’s leadership contest. Winning Nuneaton in 2020, which involves turning over a Tory majority of 4,882, is now considered not just a necessity in building a majority, but as symbolic for a party recovering a winning electoral coalition.

Research was published today by election forecaster Ian Warren, who worked for Labour in the run up to the 2015 election, and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner pollster James Morris, who advised Ed Miliband as Labour leader. Their focus groups with former Labour voters in Nuneaton makes for some uncomfortable reading for Jeremy Corbyn, who described him as “scruffy”, “dishonest” and “weak”.

Asked about what characteristics they would look for in a Labour leader, several raised the importance of a working class background.

Despite this, Labour held onto power in Nuneaton and Bedworth Council in last week’s election, where half of the seats were contested – although the Conservatives made three gains from Labour.

However, the Tory pretenders to the throne did not fare much better, with the summary report of the research noting: “Boris Johnson is seen as a smart quirky joker, not PM material. George Osborne is seen as ‘sneaky’ and there is little awareness and even less approval of Theresa May.”

You can read the summary report of the research here, and the transcripts here and here.