Cameron is in real trouble

Strategy with Sue Marsh

This week has been shocking for the government. If that sounds obvious, then perhaps you don’t realise just how shocking I believe it was.

It goes without saying that the NOTW scandal has not played well for Cameron and neither has he played it well. I have always been astonished by the Coulson angle. That a Prime Minister could take a man into the heart of government who at the very least presided over criminal activity and then allow him to resign with barely a whisper always astonished me. The phone hacking scandal has bubbled away for years and a smoke screen that large usually indicates a fire raging totally out of control.

Coulson has been arrested (as any sane person must always have known he would be?) and “Nice Guy Dave” is no more. His “Second Chance” line looks naïve at best, not to mention dreadfully convenient. I imagine “Dave” was more prepared to give someone from the heart of the Murdoch empire a second chance than he might have been for say, one of his own ministers.

We must not underestimate how much the Conservatives have relied on that image. Cast your mind back to the election campaigns. Did you ever see anyone but Dave? Dave smiling with Sam, shirt sleeves rolled up, mug in hand, hugging a hoodie and kissing babies. He misled constantly without breaking his stride but the public believed him. They trusted him. OK, not enough to quite win the election, but he was their one great electoral asset. His personal ratings have always been way ahead of Miliband or Clegg’s and Dave’s personal popularity is the one thing that has kept the Tories buoyant in the polls.

It seems clear that the scandal will only get worse. Much, much worse if rumours are to be believed and Cameron will forever more be tied up in the mess. His reluctance to condemn Coulson or Brooks and his error in not appearing before parliament yesterday put him on the side of the corrupt. The scales are falling from the public’s eyes and it’s crucial to the success of this government that they don’t.

But there’s much more. Economic forecasts this week indicated that yet again, there may be no growth. Predictions stand at between -0.2% and +0.2%. If they are accurate then we will have had 9 months without growth. Annual figures will almost certainly come in way below what is required to meet the deficit reduction targets. Osborne will be under as much pressure as Dave – if not more – to explain exactly what he proposes to do and “the wrong kind of snow” or “too many bank holidays” won’t begin to cover it.

It ought to be another issue that goes beyond politics. The Eurozone is on the brink of catastrophic disaster and it would at least help a little if we were in any shape economically to bear the seismic shocks that will follow. Osborne’s oxymoronic “Expansionary Fiscal Contraction” ought to be revealed for the myth that it is as spectacularly as Dave has fallen from grace.

Thirdly, we have to remember that this is a coalition government. We knew things had turned sour over AV, but if anything confirmed the rift now at the heart of the coalition, then it was the events of this week. We no longer see Nick and Dave together; there is no more united front. No more smiley rose garden love-fests or “I agree with Nick”. The Lib Dems are no fans of Murdoch, but last year, we could never have hoped that they would defy the government whip and vote with their hearts to stop his BSKYB bid. This week, not only was it clear that they would, but there was an air of grim fatality. No last minute concessions from the Conservatives, no joint statements, no compromises not even the sense of any dialogue. Of course, one might argue that this can only help Dave. If the Lib Dems vote against nasty Mr Murdoch, then the BSkyB problem goes away without Dave’s Tories having to stick their heads above the parapets. However, the icy freeze between yellows and blues will not help Dave one bit.

And, last but not least, we have incompetence. There is barely a department that is not in real trouble. Waiting lists are rising, NHS staff are in revolt, teachers are on strike, welfare reform is about to come crashing down, the government’s own ministers are warning of massive homelessness, justice is all over the place and defence is making even Conservatives apoplectic with rage. The government are already fighting so many fires, the last thing they needed were a few more.

I now find it impossible to see how this coalition will make it through until 2015. They’ve got so much so terribly wrong, that I can only see a vote of no confidence in time. Another economic disaster like the credit crunch must surely see strong calls for a National Government? If the deficit reduction targets are not met, then all of this pain felt by ordinary people will have been for nothing. I realise we’re not there yet, but without some very good news fast, this government have nothing left. With Dave’s image tarnished for good, it can only be a matter of time before they fall.