Squeezing the Lib Dems

By Lucy Powell

I’ve written before about the return of two-party politics and the impact this is already having on the Lib Dems electoral success (or lack of it). Their recent very poor run in parliamentary by-elections and their performance in the local elections and London elections, despite the terrible polling of Labour at the time, does indicate Lib Dem squeezing on a noticeable scale.

Despite this, Nick Clegg seems hell-bent on going for “Labour’s underbelly in the North” – presumably leaving their Tory marginals in the South to their inevitable fate.

Kevin Maguire wrote in Tribune last week about high-level discussions in the Labour Party about the consequences of a Lib Dem collapse – that it may not be in Labour’s interests. But as a candidate in one of those seats lost with a huge swing to the Lib Dems last time I can’t say that there’s been any easing off in our determination to win the seat.

In my constituency, Manchester Withington, we’re currently in the middle of a hard fought council by-election campaign in the Didsbury West ward. This ward is considered a “safe” Lib Dem seat (results in May 2008: LD’s 1283; Labour 620; Tories 451) yet the intensity of the campaigning shows that nothing can be taken for granted and there’s everything to play for.

What’s more, even the Tories are throwing huge effort at this by-election – so far issuing three leaflets, two direct mails and knocking on doors – and shows their desperation to get a foot-hold in Manchester, but also could prove particularly worrying for the Lib Dems, whose fragile coalition consists of a large number of natural Tory voters voting tactically.

Before recently, the Tories hadn’t knocked on a door in this constituency since 1997. But on Saturday in Didsbury we saw Tories from Liverpool out and about! And clearly money is not an issue, as many mailings have been posted. Meanwhile the Lib Dems have bussed in councillors from Knowsley and Scotland, and used their flood of literature to ramp up their well-known Election Myth Machine.

Of course, we’re working really hard too, with over 70 activists turning up on one day last week.

It’s a microcosm of the forthcoming general election (albeit in a part where we don’t usually do that well); and demonstrates the delicate balance of the electorate in these vital swing seats. A small swing to the Tories could lose the Lib Dems this parliamentary seat next time.

The fact is that we must win back seats like Manchester Withington in order to minimise the impact of the “Ashcroft Millions” in Labour/Tory marginal’s, where only very small swings to the Tories are needed. With a well-funded resurgent Tory party, we cannot afford seats like Manchester Withington to remain Lib Dem. A vote for the Lib Dems here is in effect a vote for a Tory government. That’s why, despite the views of Kevin Maguire’s source, the Party remains committed to winning seats against the Lib Dems as well as where we’re up against the Tories. Can the same be said for the Lib Dems in the South?