The ICM poll shows we have to get moving – what better opportunity than the Queen’s Speech?

By James Valentine

The ICM polling results in yesterday’s Guardian are a cause for concern. As Alex Smith has noted, while the raw numbers are encouraging for Labour, the indications that Cameron is “sealing the deal” are worrying.

The plusses for Cameron in this poll show that his spin is working, but they’re hardly based on reality.

For example, the weird perception that he’s more “respected internationally”. It is difficult to find evidence that our key ally, the US, respects him much, and the major European countries like France and Germany are clearly wary of him. And how well is he known in China or India? By contrast, Brown is highly respected abroad and this was demonstrated at Conference where a succession of overseas leaders spoke up for him.

Especially painful for Labour is that the ICM respondents apparently rate the Tories as being as good or even better than Labour on alleviating poverty. Cameron’s Hugo Young lecture has perhaps taken people in. But he skates around the concept of relative poverty; the speech consisted of much soft soap but little about changing outcomes. That’s why the child poverty section of the Queen’s Speech, if it’s handled the right way, will be critical.

Relative poverty targets can come back and bite you, as has happened to Labour during the prosperous years. But it’s nevertheless vital to have them because otherwise any discussion of poverty is meaningless. The Queen’s Speech will reaffirm the importance of those targets; it will be interesting to see the Tories squirm and evade and I hope that Labour can be resolute and clear in its approach.

The Tory line on poverty also merges into an anti-state, “the market-will-solve everything” approach. In particular, they set great store on the concept of “free schools”. Again, the Education and Families Bill in the Queen’s Speech will set out a realistic approach based on outcomes. Yes, parents are sometimes dissatisfied. But let’s give them the legal powers to pursue change in unsatisfactory schools. How many of them, in reality, would wish to set up schools of their own?

So I see these qualitative poll results as a warning shot – it’s now a test of our resolve to put forward a positive programme and rebut the Tory spin.