How will David Cameron react to the Fabians’ research on poverty and the inactive state?

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

On the day the Fabian Society launches its Solidarity Society report – two years in the making – one of its authors, Tim Horton, has written to David Cameron challenging him to speak to the Fabians about poverty in modern Britain.

In his Hugo Young Memorial Speech recently, David Cameron critiqued Fabianism and argued that the size and scope of government were “now inhibiting, not advancing the progressive aims of reducing poverty and fighting inequality”.

Cameron also recently argued that ‘big government’ causes poverty, and, last year, that:

“the methods of the centre-left, principally income redistribution and social programmes run by the state…have now run their course. The returns from big state intervention are not just diminishing, they are disappearing.”

But Tim Horton, who wrote the new Fabian report with James Gregory, challenges those views based on his extensive new research. His letter to Cameron says:

“We do not think that analysis is supported by the evidence on poverty prevention in Britain and internationally. Both our new book and your Hugo Young lecture discuss the history of poverty trends in the 20th century. Yet we were surprised that your recent lecture at the Guardian skipped straight from 1968 to post-1997 in analysing poverty trends, so said nothing at all about the 1980s, which saw the largest increase in poverty and inequality in 20th century Britain.

* Poverty measured as below 60 per cent median income rose from 12 per cent in 1977 to 25 per cent in 1992 – more than doubling.

* Poverty measured as below 50 per cent mean income rose from 8 per cent in 1977 to 25 per cent in 1992 – more than trebling.

So the largest increase in poverty in the 20th century coincided with a political programme to reduce the role of the state. This would seem to be precisely the opposite of the analysis you offered. We are interested in your views as to why you think this happened.”

The role of the state is increasingly becoming a dividing line ahead of the general election, and it will be intriguing to see whether Cameron will accept this challenge.

If he does, he will need to find evidence that sufficiently counters the Fabians’ research that shows the small state inaction defined by Thatcherism increases poverty.

If he refuses, those on the left will continue to doubt that Cameron’s Big Idea – The Big Society – holds any real chance of alleviating poverty in this country.

You can read Tim Horton’s full letter to David Cameron here, and download the Fabian report The Solidarity Society here.