Tories at their lowest ICM poll level in two years and Labour winning debate on social care

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

CORRECTION: YouGov tracker actually shows no change from Friday’s numbers at Con 39, Lab 33, LD 17.

UPDATE: The YouGov tracking poll, which includes data taken in the last 24 hours during the Rawnsley “revelations”, shows: Con 41, Lab 29, LD 19.

The trend of a tightening election race will be confirmed by a new ICM poll published in tomorrow’s Guardian. The poll will show the Tories down two points on 37%, Labour still at 30% and the Lib Dems also unchanged at 20%, compared with the most recent ICM poll for the Telegraph two weeks ago.

It’s the lowest the Tories have fared an any ICM poll in two years.

That would deliver a hung parliament, with the Tories on 291 seats, 35 seats short of a majority, to Labour’s 273, according to the UK Polling Report’s Swing Calculator.

The Tories have also lost ground on the economy, and – notably – Labour is 8 points ahead of the Tories on social care policy.

Follow LabourList’s poll tracker here.