This is the updated Polynomial Trend, including today’s YouGov tracker (though not the debate reaction polls), and polls from Harris and TNS-BMRB.
The poor showing in the Harris poll seems to have been offset by the more positive polls over the last few days, and as such, the projection holds steady at 30%-39%.
Theo Grzegorczyk
Theo Grzegorczyk is the Political Advisor to Waheed Alli and a Business Consultant at Chorion Ltd.
More from LabourList
‘Delivering in local government: How Labour is building a better Britain everywhere’
‘Labour must take up the challenge on endometriosis’
LabourList x Trainline Summer Party 2026 – In Pictures