New Populus poll shows Labour within three points of Tories

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: YouGov’s daily tracker shows: Con 39% (nc), LAB 31% (-2), LD 20% (nc).

UPDATE: A new ComRes poll for ITN/The Independent shows the Tories on 36% (-1 on yesterday’s equivalent poll), Labour on 31% (+1) and the Lib Dems on 19% (-1). Translated to a general election on a uniform swing, that would make Labour the biggest party in a hung parliament on 283 seats, with the Tories on 281.

ComRes also asked which party the public thought had the most realistic plans for tackling Britain’s public financing debt. 25% said the Conservatives have the best plans, 23% Labour and 11% Liberal Democrats. 39% of those polled said either that they didn’t know who had realistic plans to cut the deficit or none of the parties had good plans.

Breaking down the voting intention figures by geography, ComRes found that in the South East the two main parties are fairly close with Conservatives on 35%, Labour on 30%, and Liberal Democrats on 22%. But the Conservative lead is greater in the key marginal area of the Midlands, where they are on 40%, with Labour on 28% and Liberal Democrats on 17%.

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The election race is tightening, according to a new Populus poll published tonight by the Times.

The poll shows the Tories have slipped three points in the last week to 36%, while Labour have made a 1% gain to 33%. The Lib Dems are on 21%.

Translated on a uniform swing to the general election, the poll’s numbers point towards a hung parliament, with Labour as the biggest party 25 seats short of a working majority on 301 seats and the Tories on 264, according to the UK Polling Report.

The poll was taken yesterday and this morning, so while they may show the impact of Labour’s manifesto launch, they do not include responses to the Tory manifesto, launched today.

The Times says:

“The latest poll shows that 32% of the public now hope for a hung parliament (as opposed to expecting one), against 28% wanting a Tory majority and 22% a Labour one. Lib Dem voters prefer a deal with Labour than the Tories in a hung parliament, by 44 to 31%t.

“The public is evenly split 40 to 42% about whether they want Labour or the Tories in either a majority or a minority government. The poll shows that the number expecting a Tory overall majority has risen by three points to 34% over the past week. This only just exceeds the number expecting a hung parliament, at 33%, down six points compared with a week ago. Overall, 57% expect the Tories to be the largest party, against 29% expecting Labour to be.”

However, a second poll, taken by Angus Reid for Political Betting, shows the volatility of the race, with the Tory lead still at ten points. The topline results are: Conservative 38%, Labour 28%, Lib Dem 22%. These numbers in a general election would also deliver a hung parliament, with the Tories winning 316 seats to Labour’s 246.

There are more polls to follow later tonight, including a ComRes poll for ITN/The Indpendent and YouGov.