Poll List: Tories edge ahead of the rest in Populus poll

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: Tonight’s ComRes poll for ITV News/The Independent shows the Tories up one point on 33%, the Lib Dems down two points to 29% and Labour up one point to 29%. That would deliver a hung parliament, with Labour the biggest party on 279 seats, 53 seats short of a working majority, the Tories on 244 seats and the Lib Dems on 96, according to the UK Polling Report.

A new Populus poll for the Times shows the Tories have gained 4 points in the last week and risen to 36%, while the Lib Dems are down 3 points to 29% and Labour are down one point to 27%.

Translated to a general election on a uniform swing, those numbers would likely deliver a hung parliament, with the Tories 36 seats short of a working majority on 290 seats. Labour would be on 245, and the Lib Dems on 84. 46% of respondents now expect a hung parliament.

The Times reports:

“The biggest issues are the state of the economy, followed by the NHS and immigration. But there are big variations with Tory supporters putting a much greater emphasis on immigration and crime than Labour ones…

And it continues:

“Some 6% say they have already voted by postal vote, including 12% of over 65 year olds. But 26% say they have got a postal vote but have not used it yet.”

In a separate Populus poll in Scotland, Labour is holding its vote share at 37%, the Lib Dems are on 24%, the SNP are on 19% and the Tories are on 16%.

In tonight’s YouGov tracker, the Tories are unchanged on 33%, with Labour back in second and up one point on 29%. The Lib Dems are down two points to 28%.