The Facebook election: Snap poll of 16,000 users points to hung parliament with significant numbers of undecideds

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

With the online space an ever-increasingly important aspect of campaigning in British politics, some have asked whether Twitter can help influence or predict the result of the May 6th ballot. Others say, with its 21 million users in the UK, this could be the first Facebook election.

Certainly, Facebook has the potential to reach millions of voters – and it’s a tool Labour is using well with campaigns including Save Our Sure Start and the share tools for the early manifesto pledges.

My view is that the internet will play a crucial, but not decisive, role in the outcome of the election. But an interesting poll of 16,000 Facebook users yesterday, within a couple of hours of the Prime Minister visiting the palace – paints further relevant pictures of quite how close this election could be.

That’s a lead of 3.4% for the Conservatives as we go into the campaign.

If translated to a general election on a uniform swing, those numbers indicate – along with some major pollsters – that we could be heading for a hung parliament with Labour as the biggest party. The poll would deliver 292 seats for Labour, and 269 seats for the Tories, meaning Labour would be some 34 seats short of a working majority.

Of course, there are a number of things to bear in mind with a poll like this, and it is by no means a complete picture. Over half of respondents, for example, were in the 18-24 age bracket. But the demographics of some Facebook users could prove further motivation for Labour to continue its work on the social networking site, particularly with a significant number of voters on Facebook still undecided, and women in particular.

The poll was conducted yesterday by Facebook’s Democracy UK initiative, which aims to connect Facebook users to politics during the election.