Analysing the latest leadership survey

By Mark Ferguson and Jon Newton

As we know from the topline results of our latest readers’ survey, published last week, Ed Miliband appears to have the momentum, and there’s also good news for Andy Burnham. But below those numbers, there is further interesting analysis that can be done by looking at the answers of all respondents.

Here is the basic breakdown of how our readers placed each candidate.

However, what is perhaps more interesting, and relevant when we consider the way in which the leadership election is conducted, is the way in which 2nd and 3rd preferences are transfered, which show a slightly different picture:

What we can see here is that the results of the final round (after all votes have been transfered) produce a similar result to our last survey, which saw Ed Miliband triumph by 9% in the final round of voting. This time the margin has widened slightly to 10.8%, however as Ed is now in first place on second preferences we must assume that the main movement has been from people moving him up their list of preferences. All of this is of course within the margin of error for this survey which stands at +/- 4.

This survey shows a significant movement in favour of Andy Burnham, who now finds himself in a solid third place. It should be stressed that as we’re now close to the receipt of ballots, we have excluded non-Labour members from our analysis (which we didn’t do last time). Nonetheless, Andy has moved ahead of Diane Abbott, and although he’s still way behind the two Milibands, he does seem to have gained momentum as the race has gone on.

What does appear significant is that Andy Burnham being in third place actually benefits David Miliband. Andy’s elimination sees David close the gap on his brother in the final round. Perhaps as some have suggested throughout the race, Andy Burnham doing well and increasing his support, as he appears to be doing here, will benefit David. What is unclear however, is whether or not Ed will already have enough support by that stage to beat David. Diane Abbott’s support overwhelmingly transfers to Ed Miliband, so perhaps there should be some cause for concern for the Ed Miliband campaign from this survey, as Abbott drops back and Burnham moves into third place. Of course the gap between them in our survey is incredibly small, yet it could be on small margins such as this that the leadership race is decided.

The very small sample size means these breakdowns are only suggestive, but they perhaps indicate Ed, rather than David as many expected, may be the one who will need to be comfortably ahead in the first round, before transfers come into play.

These surveys are a useful snapshot of where we are, but we accept, of course, that they are not perfect. The vagaries of the electoral college system mean they could be wholly irrelevant. If David Miliband, for instance, were to pull 70% of the Trade Union vote, 50% of the PLP support, and the result above, he would win in the first round without any re-allocation of preferences. And given the self-selecting nature of respondents and a sample which is probably not representative of the overall party, this problem is further exacerbated. And the sample size is small – in this case resulting in a +/- 4 margin of error.

While this survey can, and will, be rejected out of hand by many as being not totally scientific or representative of the whole voting labour movement, it is self-evidently a useful reflection of our readership, and a guide to how the campaign is developing. These numbers are now ten days old, but the analysis of how votes might transfer offers us a little insight into where we are in an otherwise arcane process.

In short, Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham are the big winners from our survey – but David Miliband could be the real beneficiary of a Burnham surge.

How the transfers work:

The Labour Party uses a preferential voting system to select its leader. Voters place candidates in order of preference from 1 (most preferred) to 5 (least preferred), and as candidates are eliminated votes are transferred between candidates based on how voters have ranked them. So, based on our survey, Ed Balls would be eliminated first, with his second preferences would be divided between the four remaining candidates, and the results re-tallied. Diane Abbott gains fewer of Ed Balls’ second preference votes than Andy Burnham, so is eliminated in the next round – however the largest transfer of votes from Ed Balls goes to David Miliband.

Diane Abbott’s voters who ranked David Miliband, Ed Miliband or Andy Burnham second have their second preferences allocated, and those who placed Ed Balls as their second choice have their third preferences distributed between the three remaining candidates. Those who voted for Ed Balls as first choice and placed Diane Abbott as their second preference have their third preferences divided between the three remaining candidates. The process is repeated in the third round, when Andy is eliminated, and the final run off totals are calculated.