Public mood turns against the cuts

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

There’s obviously a certain amount of comfort being taken by the left tonight as Labour moves into a two point lead in the latest Guardian/ICM poll after Ed’s conference bounce. We shouldn’t be too jubilant though, as this lead will be erased during Tory conference when all of the focus is on them.

However the important figure from tonight’s poll is not, as Tim Montgomerie is suggesting over at ConHome, that Ed Miliband is behind Cameron as “preferred PM”. These polls tend to be largely influenced by name recognition, and as Ed has only been party leader for five days, it would be remarkable if he were anywhere near Cameron yet on that score.

However, much more interestingly, the public mood is now swinging against the cuts, as the earlier support appears to be evaporating as reality bites. 43% of respondents now say that the cuts have gone too far compared with 37% who think the balance is right. Long term, it’s the unpopularity of cuts, rather than Cameron’s personal profile that will decide the next election. That’s why the upcoming Comprehensive Spending Review is so crucial – and why Labour’s new shadow chancellor, whoever she/he is – needs to hit the ground running.