Alarm Clock Heroes

The Paul Richards Column

Today’s Alarm Clock Heroes are all those who set their alarms for five or six this morning to make an early start on demolishing the coalition candidates in Oldham & Saddleworth. A healthy Labour win today will corroborate two theses – that the Liberal Democrats are toxic, and are being punished for their Vichy-like acquiescence to the Tory cuts, and that Ed Miliband has steadied the ship after Labour’s catastrophic defeat last year. I’m not amongst those who counsel that a Labour win in Old & Sad will put the party into ‘cruise control’, unaware of the scale of the challenge. I am sure that Ed Miliband knows only too acutely aware of the magnitude of the task he has unexpectedly been given. His remarks to the shadow cabinet this week suggest a degree of self-awareness. I’d rather be discussing Labour’s revival against a backcloth of Labour by-election victories than defeats. Victories in by-election seats don’t presage victory at a general election (Labour won loads leading up to 1992), but defeats in by-elections are never good news.

An interesting piece by Tom Watson this week suggested that the general election might be closer than we assume. A ‘no’ vote in the referendum and a revolt inside the Lib Dems against their bungling and treacherous leadership might persuade Cameron to spring a snap election in May.

I have no idea whether Comrade Watson’s source – an anonymous Tory – is privy to the inner-workings of the Prime Minister’s mind, or a product of Mr Watson’s. You might wonder whether such a well-placed source would want to share the hottest political secret of the year with a Labour MP and blogger.

It doesn’t matter, really. The thought is now lodged in the collective political brain, and oh look, people like me are writing about it. Ben Brogan, the Conservative-leaning writer, saw fit to dismiss the idea of a May election in this morning’s Telegraph. I’m with Bismark: never believe anything in politics until it’s officially denied. It serves as a useful piece of psychological warfare against the Tory-led government.Our own recent experience suggests nothing is more destabilising to a government than a build-up to an election which is then funked for fear of defeat.

Douglas Alexander did a good job last night on Newsnight in tackling the Lib Dem MP Tim Farron. I remember Mr Farron as a member of the National Union of Students exec, with an annoying habit of putting his foot up on the chair when he made a speech. But the debate illustrated a broader problem with Labour’s approach to the Lib Dems.

Douglas Alexander made the error of ascribing to his Lib Dem opponent a modicum of integrity in hoping that he would take responsibility for his government’s actions. ‘With power comes responsibility’ implored Mr Alexander, pleasingly quoting Spider-Man. But this is exactly the Lib Dem strategy – to be both the government and opposition simultaneously: taking credit for anything you like, and blaming the Tories for anything you don’t. I’ve called it the Okey-Cokey strategy: one foot in, one foot out. It creates a platform for Liberal Democrat candidates to stand for office in full opposition to key planks of their own government’s programme.

In Labour, we’ve got used to the idea that our candidates should have the guts to stick up for the Labour government, especially on the issues which courted unpopularity. The Lib Dems have turned that on its head. In Oldham & Saddleworth, many of their leaflets don’t even mention the name ‘Liberal Democrat’, preferring to highlight only their candidate’s name, like Sting or Madonna.

Cameron won’t put up with this for long. As a special adviser, Cameron served a Conservative government so bedevilled by internal opposition that John Major called them the ‘bastards’. Now he’s made it to No.10, the last thing he wants is his own set of bastards in the cabinet. A defeat for Clegg today makes his party an even less attractive coalition party. Cameron did the deal last May because the Liberal Democrats brought with them a chunk of popular support. It wasn’t their brilliant insight, strategic genius or good looks. It certainly wasn’t their policy ideas, which Cameron has either ditched or, like AV, will see defeated. Without a bank of votes in their pockets, the Lib Dems are about as much use to Cameron as a VHS recorder.

Perhaps the chance to dump them in May isn’t so far-fetched after all.