Welcome to 2011

The Labour movement column

By Anthony Painter

For this week’s column, I though it would be worth considering the fate of the main (UK wide) parties in 2011.

Labour

Electorally this will be a very good year for Labour. Starting with the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election next week, the party will pick up MPs, local councilors, MSPs, and AMs. This matters as it is the infrastructure for recovery further down the line. A sense of forward momentum within the party is critical to moving into a potential winning position come 2015. Labour will end the year with an opinion poll lead and, quite possibly, a significant one at that.

It will be tempting to get swept along in a media narrative of recovery. How Labour is able to set itself for further and clinching success down the line will be determined by its ability to understand that deeper issues still bedevil the party and its relationship with English voters. This is where the leader comes in. Policy reviews are but one element of recovery. More fundamentally, if Ed Miliband is unable to leave the public with a clearer sense of his personal mission by the end of 2011 than he has been able to do thus far then it will be a wasted year.

The good news is that it is in his gift to do so. He will have more time and space this year than he did in the final frenetic months of 2010. His party conference message of handing down not only public finances in order but a society worth having to our kids and grand-kids is exactly the right place for him to be. Now he has to define the how and bring it to life.

At worst this will look like a good year for Labour; at best it will be a good year for Labour.

Conservatives

The fate of the Conservatives is the most difficult to predict. It is worth noting that they have gained support in the months since the general election. If there were an election today, it is very likely that they would secure a majority as Labour’s opinion poll rating feels very frothy. It would not be surprising if they started off this electoral year with a second place finish in Oldham East and Saddleworth. They are starting from a high watermark in local government so will sustain significant losses there. However, it is not inconceivable that they will remain in the mid-30s or more in the polls.

That depends on three things: (i) The strength of the economic recovery – likely to be weak growth combined with increased unemployment; (ii) The politics of the tax increases/public spending cuts – is there a poll tax equivalent in there somewhere?; and (iii) Whether large scale public service reform, most particularly in health but potentially in local government also throws up some iconic disaster.

My sense is that as 2011 proceeds and beyond, it is (iii) that becomes the hotter political potato for the Conservatives. The problem they have is that there is absolutely no way of blaming that on the previous Labour government. Coalition ministers spend their time reading Tony Blair’s memoirs. They read them with one eye closed. Where New Labour reforms worked, they were experimental, incremental, and then scalable. The Conservatives have gone for scale first instead of experimentalism and incrementalism. To say that’s risky is an understatement. The question is whether 2011 will be the year when the risk comes back to bite them.

As crises start to happen, David Cameron will cease to be a Chairman and will become more of a Chief Executive. Eventually, he will end up as a Chief Operating Officer. The pace of the metamorphosis will depend on how quickly reforms start to unravel and crises emerge. But expect 2011 to see the end of Chairman Cameron (after all, not all of the thousand flowers will bloom) and the emergence of David Cameron, Chief Executive.

The Liberal Democrats

It is difficult to overstate what a bad year this will be for the Liberal Democrats. At worst, they could even face an existential crisis. Towards the end of last year, I wrote that Nick Clegg was ‘finished’. And he is. If he’s not, the Liberal Democrats are going down with him. Their choice is between their party and their leader.

The question is whether 2011 is the year when they face up to that choice or whether they will defer it. My best guess is the latter though the local elections will come as a severe shock to the system – by and large they’ve been gaining for two decades now. In elections, the reality of defeat is always worse than the anticipation.

Of course, the AV referendum is the same day as the local, Scottish and Welsh elections. As things stand this is likely to be lost. The pro-reform camp have not come up with a clear message. Only one will work: a better chance to sack your MP.

So we’re into the territory of proxy decision-making. All eyes will turn to who is pushing the change hardest and that will be the leader of the Liberal Democrats (whether he chooses to pretend it’s a people’s campaign or not.) Labour voters will conclude that the cuts are a far more pressing concern than electoral reform and will deploy their vote accordingly. The things that can save the ‘yes’ campaign are: (i) a much sharper message; (ii) Nick Clegg being locked in a cupboard; and (iii) A superb organisation that swings it in a low turnout environment. We’ll see.

Paul Mason forecasts the end of the coalition in 2011 to be replaced by a Coalition Mark II of Conservatives, Orange Book Liberal Democrats, and Ulster Unionists. I agree that such a coalition is entirely conceivable before 2015 with a Tim Farron led parliamentary Liberal Party in opposition. It may not be in 2011 but things could move very quickly after May.

Others

Green Party – 2011 is their big opportunity. With the Liberal Democrat vote disintegrating and footloose, a big chunk is theirs for the taking. Caroline Lucas has been training her fire on Labour more recently. This is a sensible strategy. However, their organisation doesn’t seem up to the challenge on any level so they will flatter to deceive.

BNP – The party is on the verge of collapse. The real question is what happens to the BNP vote. Watch for the emergence of an anti-muslim, pro-‘Englishness’, pro-law and order party which may grow out of something such as the English Defence League. Do not underestimate the potential for this to gain traction given the more liberal stance of the Conservative and Labour parties.

UKIP – It’s simple with UKIP: their profile rises in accordance with attention on the EU. There are no European elections in 2011. Turkey’s application will trundle along but not come to a head in 2011. However, the sovereign debt cascade and its impact on the Euro is most definitely in play. If the contagion spreads to Portugal then Spain then Belgium etc and the UK has to contribute to massive bailouts then Europe could rise up the agenda. In the absence of popular anger in such a scenario then UKIP will remain where they currently are: in the shadows.

So there it is, I’ve played the mugs game of making predictions. If any of them are wrong then I’ll just blame events, dear boy. Have a great 2011.