No takes a 16% lead with YouGov

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

After ICM gave the No campaign at 16% lead yesterday, YouGov have done the same today – with the No vote currently beating the Yes vote by 58% to 42%. Anthony Wells of YouGov says that current trends mean that the Yes campaign must acheive overwhelming support amongst Labour voters to win, saying:

“If Conservative voters continue to oppose AV in proportions of around 5-1, and Liberal Democrat supporters continue to support AV in roughly the same proportions, then as a rough rule of thumb Labour voters would have to back AV by more than 2-1 in order for the YES campaign to win. None of our recent polling has shown Labour voters backing AV in anything like these proportions.”

Does this mean the Yes campaign is dead in the water? A 66% Yes vote from Labour voters looks extremely unlikely, but it looks like that’s what would be needed to win the election. In truth the electoral maths haven’t changed, and the problem remains the same – not enough Labour supporters are backing Yes. But time is running out.