A ‘Progressive Majority’? Of course there isn’t

The Paul Richards column

I was accused this week of being a ‘liberal majoritarian’, which in my circles is fighting talk. There is a healthy debate about how to win the election, and who we need to vote Labour next time. It is a far more sensible discussion than the last time we entered opposition after a period of Labour government. Then, many assumed ‘the working class’ would carry the day, once the scales fell from their eyes about the true evils of Thatcherism. It turned out that most of the ‘working class’, their freezers full, their holidays booked, and a new car in the driveway of their ex-council house, quite liked Thatcher, and certainly more than that old bloke, or that Welsh one. In 1979, more trade union members voted for the Tories than Labour. But it took about a decade for the party to wake up to the idea that to win it needed people who didn’t attend GC meetings to vote Labour. This time round, it took about ten minutes, with the publication of Liam Byrne’s analysis of the votes we lost, and all the debate since.

Is there a ‘progressive majority’ in Britain? Of course there isn’t, otherwise the Tories would not have dominated the last century. I doubt there’s even a progressive majority in the Labour Party. Politics, even socialist politics, is about self-interest. On the left, it should be about enlightened self-interest, with the recognition that for me and my family to do well, you and your family have to do well too. If you don’t believe me, have a look at your party card, just after the bit where it says Labour is a socialist party:

“It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few.”

So armed with this insight, Labour’s job is to construct a programme which appeals to people’s self-interest: jobs which pay decent wages with the prospect of promotion; an education system which allows every child to blossom; streets free from vandalism, litter and crime; a spirit of tolerance and respect; and intolerance for those who break the rules or fiddle the system. The early signs from Liam Byrne’s policy review are encouraging: a tough theme of responsibility, and no slippage into bad old ways.

If we build that programme, and sell it convincingly, Labour can win the votes of not only disgruntled Liberal Democrats, but also people who hitherto voted BNP, UKIP, Tory, SNP, and of course those who didn’t vote at all. Our majority doesn’t have to be progressive, it just has to be a majority.

Which brings me to the Liberal Democrats. No party has an automatic right to exist. Parties shine bright, then fade away when the conditions that spawned them disappear. Common Wealth, the SDP, the Independent Labour Party (ILP), the Referendum Party, and dozens of others, some with elected MPs and councillors, have been and gone. I’d like to think that the Fancy Dress Party, the Natural Law Party (those transcendental dudes) and the Legalise Cannabis Party formed a merger, and are all in a field somewhere. If a party ceases to have a purpose, it ceases to exist. Nick Clegg has led his party to such an existential crisis. After years of being an opposition, without any serious prospect of government, he has tried to make his party a party of government. It’s like telling your dog that from now on they’ve got to be a cat. It was always likely to fail.

Clegg’s failure to negotiate a referendum on proportional representation, rather than AV, will be top of the Liberal Democrat charge sheet when he’s hauled in front of a People’s Court. The Yes to AV was run by well-meaning people, but ultimately it was campaigning for a system that few electoral reformers actually desired above all others. Now, with the prospect of electoral reform further away than ever, Clegg has to justify his position in the coalition.

With the Tories ascendant, and the Liberal Democrats humbled, that will be harder than ever. Justine Greening said this week on Radio 4 that when she attended ministerial meetings, she couldn’t tell who the Lib Dem ministers were. I think she meant it as a compliment, but it reveals the truth that the presence of Lib Dems inside government has made virtually no difference whatsoever.

On health, the coalition agreement talks about elected primary care trusts (PCTs). Lansley is abolishing PCTs. On the environment, Cameron is about to ditch the climate change committee’s recommendation for a ‘fourth carbon budget’. In education, Gove is doing exactly what he wants to schools, and we all know about tuition fees. On constitutional reform, electoral reform for the Commons is dead, and an elected House of Lords will be blocked by the Tories. And overarching all of this are the ‘big society’ cuts, abolishing the very agencies and charities that Lib Dems support. Constitutional reform, health, schools and the economy: in each area Tory ministers are doing what they would do if there was a Tory majority.

For Labour, though, an essential truth remains. No matter how pleasurable it is to watch the Lib Dems die of slow asphyxiation in their embrace with the Tories, those same Tories will win a majority at the next election unless Labour can stop them. As many have said this week, rightly, the focus must now be on beating the Tories, especially in the south, where so far this year Labour has made little progress.