A year of opposition: how are we doing?

A year ago today, David Cameron spoke outside Downing Street and announced that he would be forming a coalition, and a government, with the Lib Dems. So today marks a year since the party entered opposition after thirterrn years of government. Many of the Labour MPs elected last May (and many of you reading this), have lived much of their adult lives under a Labour government. Opposition was always going to be a challenge – and it’s sink or swim. So how are we doing? We’ve taken a look at five key areas for success in opposition (Elections, Leadership, Party Unity, Policies/Message and Polling) and tried to analyse how the party have done in this first year. How do you think Labour has performed? Do you agree with our analysis? Is there anything we’re missing? If so, leave your comments below.

Elections – Two weeks ago we might have said so far so good. Now it’s more a case of “good in parts, but with some weaknesses that must be addressed”. Scotland has already been analysed several times over on this site – clearly there are real, long-term problems there that led to last week’s defeat. But failing to make gains against the Tories in Southern England is the real threat to the party’s prospects of winning a Westminster election. Scottish voters will come back to Labour in 2015 (or sooner) as a means of keeping the Tories out. Voters in Southern England meanwhile seem fairly happy with the government’s direction of travel. Picking up seats – particularly Tory seats at by-elections should they come along – is the crucial next step. We’re very good at beating Lib Dems, but that won’t win elections. That said, 800 council seats and good by-election wins aren’t to be sniffed at, but a few more Tory gains would provide some needed breathing space. – 6/10

Leadership – Ed had a sticky patch in his first few months in the job. Many in the parliamentary party had voted for his brother, and evidently a few people in the wider party resented his election and were out to forment discord and aide mischief. Yet Ed weathered this early storm, and two key decisions have established his control over the party – and a newfound confidence. First was his decision to bring in the experienced pair of Tom Baldwin and Bob Roberts to handle communications. This has meant Miliband has spent much more time on the front foot, and is getting better press coverage as a result. Second was his decision to reshuffle his shadow cabinet in the wake of Alan Johnson’s resignation. By choosing to hug Balls and Cooper close he has brought many of their supporters into his wider circle. Whilst some have suggested that Balls has a great deal of power in the party (and that’s true, at least in economic policy), Miliband is strengthened by having Balls alongside him, and Cooper seems well suited to the home office brief (albeit quieter than we might have expected). Whilst the shadow cabinet is not yet packed with household names, the top team is very strong, and will get stronger. – 7/10

Party unity – We don’t all hate each others, so that’s a start. It might sound like a facile point to make, but arguably the most important first step for any opposition is to be united. Since the first five months in opposition was spent fighting a long and hard leadership campaign, that the PLP in particular are able to work in relative harmony is something to be thankful for. Whilst there were early murmering’s of discontent about Ed’s leadership, and over the treatment of Phil Woolas, they have largely subsided. A harsh critic might suggest that it’s hard to dissent when there are no policies, but even such a critic would agree that the party is largely united. The PLP has also been capable of showing strength in the house, including having every single Labour MP vote against the rise in tuition fees back in September. That sort of discipline will be needed in the years ahead – that it exists now is something that can be built on. – 8/10

Policies/Message – What policies? You may well ask. Miliband was always clear that he wanted a prolonged period of contemplation and consideration over Labour’s new policy platform. He is probably right to do so. The downside is that “blank sheet of paper” has become a Tory attack line. Besides a commitment to a graduate tax and maintaining the 50p top rate of income tax, it’s hard to put a finger on many solid policies. Even those two are aspirations. It might seem an unfair criteria to judge the party on at the moment, but policies are obviously important – and we don’t have any. What we do have though is a message, and the crafting of messages (and the discipline of sticking to them) has been a real strength in recent months. “Too far, too fast” can’t be a substitute for an alternative economic strategy, but it’s coherent, clear and can be driven home in the media. – 5/10

Polling – Since Labour Party conference and Ed’s election in late September, the party went ahead of the Tories and have stayed there since. Obviously no-one is going to complain about being 10% ahead in the polls, but there’s a growing realisation that we’re ahead because Lib Dem support has collapsed. More worryingly, that 10% lead has dropped to 2-3% in recent days. Tory support (which of course wasn’t enough to win the election in May) has been relatively unscathed. This should be a cause of concern within the party, as wiping out the Lib Dems wouldn’t be enough to win back government – we need to win Tory seats and Tory votes too. – 7/10

Total: 33/50 – A good but not spectacular year from the party in opposition. There have been bright spots, but considering Labour took a hammering at the polls a year ago – and the leadership has only been in place for seven months – we’re not in a bad position. From now on though there are no excuses – the second year of opposition must start to hurt the Tories, and make us look like a party of government again. We’re not there yet, but it’s not out of the question that we can get there. This has been a decent first year, but the hard work is still yet to come, and it’s time for real inroads to be made. Overturning the government’s NHS plans, and winning the argument on the economy, would be a good start.