Ed Miliband and the future of social democracy

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Ed Miliband must feel a little under siege as he returns from his honeymoon. The vultures of criticism constantly circle his leadership – crying “David, David” – swooping down most viciously when he is away from the limelight and prone. And so it has been this week – as it was when Ed was on paternity leave. Because Miliband is yet to imprint himself and his direction for the party on the national mindset (or the media, or the party), support for him is soft. It’s defined by what he has said recently, and how visible he’s been. And that’s a real problem, and one that must be tackled by conference if not before.His September conference speech can’t continue with the standard holding pattern, it needs to fill the policy vacuum. The party and the country won’t tolerate another year of contemplation (or equivocation, depending on your viewpoint).

Yet what we’re talking about is more important than the career of one man. If Ed Miliband were to fail as Labour leader that would be sad, but the greater victim would be social democracy as a force in the UK – and that would be tragic.

Strip away what are considered to be Ed’s tactical failings – the blank sheet of paper (or thinking again about why we lost), party reform (or making the party fit for the 21st century) – there are also ideological attacks on Ed from outside (and also inside) the party that effectively argue that his brand of social democratic politics can’t win a general election. Those of us who consider ourselves to be social democrats can’t allow that to happen.

To roll over and accept Tory attacks on the economy, accept their spending limits, attack immigration, the sick and the disabled is not to adopt the election-winning centre ground, it is to fall back into comfortable old habits of triangulation. Winning a majority is about more than a dash of centre right and a dash of centre left to flavour a technocratic stew – it’s about putting forward a positive agenda that can inspire the near 50% of the electorate we will need to win the next election. It’s something that is still possible from Ed’s leadership and it’s something that social democrats are well placed to do. We won’t win through the negative reaction to cuts, or an acceptance of a negative Tory critique of our record. We’ll win by having a positive vision for Britain after the cuts. There’s a place for mea culpas, but our next manifesto shouldn’t be riddled with them like we are ashamed of ourselves and our record in government, tugging on our forelocks and promising we won’t do the same again.

That’s not to say that we don’t need credible policies on crime (where the Tories are weak) and immigration (where the Tories are all over the place). That’s not to say that we don’t need to look carefully at welfare and benefits and ensure that everyone – taxpayers, recipients and the huge number who are both – get a fair deal, and that every penny can be justified. Social democracy can, and must, tackle the concerns of the electorate in these areas, or it will be doomed to irrelevance, glued to the starting blocks as the race goes on without it.

But if Ed Miliband fails, the Labour Party – and British politics – will likely fall back into a discredited pattern of triangulation and political cross-dressing. The electorate will lose interest. Turnout will continue to dwindle. Social democracy, under siege for so long in the media, will wither and die, fulfilling the right-wing prophecy of its irrelevance. We will all accept that a social democrat cannot expect to lead the Labour Party – nevermind the government – and our party will begin chasing the electoral dragon – a third way that worked once but now seems as nostalgic and of its time as the post-war consensus.

The future of Ed Miliband’s leadership – still perhaps in its early stages – is about nothing less than the future of social democracy in Britain. More than anything else, that’s what’s really at stake here.