Time for Ed Miliband mark II

By Anthony Painter / @anthonypainter

The best oppositions meet both a short-term and the long-term challenge. The short-term challenge is to have a credible argument about the issues if the day: not simply critique but alternative also. Looking to the long-term, they must define a realisable vision for the nation – this expresses your values and defines your capability to meet the nation’s aspirations. Ed Miliband has been more effective so far on the long than short-term aspects of opposition.

Tomorrow, he will deliver a speech that will define more clearly his focus on a responsibility agenda – at the top and on the bottom – which appears to float in a blue Labourish direction. There will be some policy flesh on the bones. This is the conversation that he wants to have – inequality, the squeezed middle, and commitment to important local institutions. It is a perfectly credible long-term agenda (though without much to say about the cultural and identity issues that are a major issue bubbling away – not only in Scotland but England also.)

Likewise, David Cameron wanted the ‘big society’ to be the opposition conversation that he wanted to have. Unfortunately, in opposition you don’t get to choose the battles. If you pursue opposition as a purely long-term game you can very quickly appear irrelevant.

The live political fray surrounds the deficit, economic prospects, NHS reform, and criminal justice. It’s not that Labour isn’t trying to get into these discussions. It’s that it’s just not being heard. Part of this is about coalition dynamics. Internal rows about NHS reform will always consume more media space than worthy opposition statements. So Labour’s voice is largely silent on these live issues.

Where it is not silent, its balance is towards critique rather than constructive alternative. It’s the easiest thing in the world to deflect that sort of attack. David Cameron does it week in, week out in the House of Commons. The response is always: “well, you can’t expect us to have answers four years ahead of a general election.” Unfortunately, that’s just not good enough anymore – even if it ever was. And until critique is matched with solid proposal, Labour’s voice will be silent.

Opposition after a long period in government is particularly tricky. You have a record to defend also yet you don’t get to shout every good statistic, every policy success, every bit of positive news from the rooftops as it is your opponents who will be taking all the credit. The way to handle this is surely to be honest about your past in a forward-looking way. You don’t just go for self-flagellating mea culpas. You identify the mistake you made, explain why, then make constructive proposals for the future to demonstrate that the same mistakes will not be made again.

Without wanting to get into the factional turf war that has yet again erupted over the last 24 hours or so, it does seem to me that the passage on Labour’s record on the deficit in David Miliband’s phantom conference speech did this in entirely the right way. He admitted that Labour was not as cautious as it should have been prior to 2008 (I would also add that the Conservatives had backed it up on this); asserted in absolute terms that Labour’s fiscal response to economic crisis was exactly right; and then proposed an Alistair Darling led commission to establish new and credible fiscal rules. That’s how you do a mea culpa: not inch-by-inch but in a comprehensive and constructive way, So that gets you into the deficit conversation in a different way. Once you are in the deficit conversation then that gives you an in to the economic conversation. This may seem like the wrong way round but it is what it is. As an opposition, you don’t choose the terms of the debate other than in periods of flux. We are not currently in a period of flux.

Now the challenge is to answer the relevant questions of the day at the sites of live political battle. The government, media, influencers etc establish these questions. You can get all stroppy about not accepting the agenda if you want but then you just remain in the silence. So in the economic sphere, it is ‘how do you return the economy to growth when the deficit is a real financial risk? In the case of the NHS, it is: ‘how do you maintain the level of service while also achieving £20billion savings by 2015?’ For criminal justice it is: ‘how do you ensure justice, reduce crime and ensure public safety while budgets will be cut?’

If your answer to each of these questions is always ‘spend more money’ then return to go – the deficit – and start again. Your entire apparatus of leadership – advisers, shadow ministers, influencers – must be geared to answering these questions. Set them the question, tell them to speak to who they need to speak, and come up with solid answers in a short space of time, then communicate those answers in a clear and consistent manner. Roll out speeches one by one tactically and on a regular basis. As new battles emerge, the same methodical approach must be adopted to each: comprehend the question, answer it in time, decide, communicate.

So where does this leave the policy review? The policy review is about the 2015 manifesto. It should continue its work and come up with a strong understanding of where the country will be in four years time with some really bright ideas about how Labour can bend the country towards the long-term vision it has established. The long-term vision remains important as that is what guides the policy review. So feel free to keep talking to those academics, newspaper columnists and social thinkers all you like. Just remember, they don’t have the immediate answers.

Essentially, the last few days should mark the end of phase I Ed Miliband. Quickly, he must move to phase II. The immediate term must carry a greater weight than the long-term. The practical must sit alongside the broad, visionary and conceptual. The alternative must partner the critique. Forget the polls. Forget the noise. Forget the factional nonsense. Get on with opposition and get your leadership machine in tune with its rhythms and demands. And remember, play to win – that is what will establish your leadership and let others choose whether they follow or get left in the wilderness.