Forget Ed’s first year – his second is crucial

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Conference is drawing to a close. Arriving at the conference centre this morning it felt like it already had. The whole area feels like a ghost town. The media centre has been abandoned. Only the coffee cups and cigarette packets remain. It’s hard to know what we’ve learned at this conference. Some have argued that Ed defined himself on Tuesday but in my opinion he muddied the waters a little. We still don’t know what the next Labour government will look like. Ed’s first year has been one of transition, so the next year must see sustained strides towards government. There are three key areas – profile, party and policy – that Ed needs to have improved if he’s to look more comfortable next year.

Profile – a year ago Ed Miliband was introduced to large swathes of the British public as either the bloke who best his brother, or Red Ed. The latter didn’t really take off, but the former still remains. He doesn’t need to hug a huskie or a hoodie, but he needs to articulate what Ed Miliband is about and what he’s for. The party political broadcasts in May and his “responsibility” speech were part of this stategy. The man who takes on vested interests could well be another strand. But how does this all hang tobgether? Has the squeezed middle become a muddle? The public needs to know his priorities, his talents, his hopes and his dreams. That hasn’t got through to the public yet – he must make that breakthrough this year.

Party – Labour leaders have spent so long defining themselves against the party that it has become habitual. That needs to stop. Ed has made many of the right noises about letting go of power and giving members a voice. But having a voice is only worth something if you’re listened to. Refounding Labour started well but it didn’t exactly inspire confidence in the party’s membership engagement skills. That said, Ed is still broadly liked by party members who are willing to give him the time and space to do his job. Striking a balance between leading and listening, and between driving the agenda and letting go will be crucial. The NPF – a body few in the party really understand – will need to be revamped and given real power over policy formulation. Members will need to be consulted on policy, rather than just reading briefings to the press. And the nature of disseminating information will need to change. Fewer mainstream media articles placed with the lobby and more direct video and email (two way) conversations, might begin to repair the chasm that exists between Labour’s leadership and it’s members.

Policy – in short, over the next year we’ll need to develop some. It seems that we are halfway through Liam Byrne’s policy review – a system so complex and Byzantine it makes Refounding Labour look positively transparent. That policy review (in tandem with the NPF) needs to start bearing some fruit, and quickly. To date the only concrete policies we have are graduate tax (which seems to have been dropped – but it may return later), 50p top rate of tax (which may soon amount to pledging to raise taxes) and the defense review (which isn’t likely to come up on many doorsteps). Contrary to what many political anoraks might think, policies don’t decide elections – national mood and ground organisation do – but Ed’s blank sheet of paper needs filling up. At the moment it’s a joke at his expense, if he’s not careful he could be tarred with the brush of his predecessor – eager to lead but unsure (or unable to articulate) what he wanted to do when he got there. There are many voices around Ed telling him that Labour doesn’t gain anything from announcing policies this early, but unless we can explain what voting Labour means in real terms, we’re always going to struggle with the “ability to govern” question. We need something to say other than straight-up opposition, and soon.

So when Ed stands up to give his speech in Manchester next year(of which more later), he’ll need to have addressed these key areas. Transition time is over. This year Ed will need to produce results. Now the work of change really begins.