How to make George Osborne happy

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

It’s conference season, so of course the briefing has started. There’s the whiff of reshuffle in the air (why else would Ed be abolishing shadow cabinet elections), and the spin and counter spin will need to be unspun if we’re to have any idea what on earth is going on. But the Guardian this morning featured one of the strangest briefings yet. Seemingly someone in the shadow cabinet has it in for Ed Balls.

The spin is that Balls upset other members of the shadow cabinet by turning up at a meeting late and with coffee, and didn’t bring any for anyone else. There’s also some (brief and unspecified) mention of the current economic situation, but the coffee story seems to be what has really aggrieved the briefer.

Well here’s a message to anyone who thinks briefing the papers on the basis of a spilt posh coffee is a worthwhile exercise. Grow up.

Perhaps it’s jealousy from other members of the shadow cabinet? Let’s be serious, removing Ed Balls from the pivotal and media intensive economy brief would be madness. Balls is the only senior member of the Labour Party not called Miliband who commands sustained and serious attention from the British media. He’s also consistently one of the most popular members of the shadow cabinet with party supporters, so much so that earlier this month we branded him “untouchable” along with Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper. Those who might brief against him might want to consider where they sit in member’s affections before they start crying over spilt milk(y coffee).

The person who would be most delighted to see Ed Balls moved on is the chancellor. Osborne is often under-rated as a politician by many on our side, but he’s very smart and tactically astute. Likewise, many underestimate how strong a parliamentary performer Ed Balls is, how well briefed he is and how good a communicator he is. Put it this way, it’s a long time since he told anyone about post neo-classical endogenous growth theory. He’s more likely to talk about VAT cuts and the lack of jobs – the kind of issues we hear each week on the doorstep.

And his economic message, whilst not winning the argument with the public (yet), seems at least based on the facts. Growth is falling. The economy is stagnating. Unemployment is up. This is an economic message that will take years to drip through to the public and an argument that will take even longer to win. And yet for some in the party being right is no reason not to boot Balls out. Evidently rolling over and accepting Tory economics as an inalienable law of nature is the only sound conclusion. Regardless of the evidence.

The real gripe, it seems, is that Balls is vetoing policies from the shadow cabinet that require spending. Good. That’s suggests that he understands Labour’s reputation as spendthrift whilst in government, and is determined not to make any mistakes with uncosted (and politically costly) spending commitments. The question for Labour (as Hopi Sen discusses in a new essay…but more of that later) is “what are we about when we can’t just plough more money into public services?” If Balls is putting a stop to spending commitments at an early stage of the parliament, then good – he’s doing his job.

It’s hard to escape the idea that someone, somewhere is beating the drum to remove Ed Balls as shadow chancellor. And although it’s unlikely that any senior Labour figure will break cover and make that argument publicly, Miliband should resist such advice – whether in public or in private – or he’ll gift the chancellor further leeway on the economic narrative.

And that’s a gift that Labour can’t afford.