Iran’s intentions should concern us all

Cursed be the day the atomic bomb was invented as a tool of warfare. I am not in favour of Britain unilaterally disarming herself of the nuclear weapon, but boy do I wish we lived in a world free from the scourge of that most destructive weapon. That desire comes into sharp focus this week, as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the international organisation tasked with monitoring and regulating the world’s use of nuclear energy and weapons, releases its report on Iran.

First we should consider the awesome destruction a nuclear weapon is capable of. In 1945, the United States ended the Second World War by dropping two atomic bombs, “Little Boy” and “Fat Man” on the Japanese cities Hiroshima & Nagasaki. Within two months, up to a quarter of a million people had died from the immediate effects of the bomb, with many more dying from the after effects over the following decades.

Tomiko Morimoto, was was 13 at the time of the Hiroshima bomb, describes the day the “Little Boy” rained death on her city. After two loud booms, followed by an explosion that looked something like the Sun, “something wet started coming down, like rain. I thought it was oil. I thought the Americans were going to burn us to death. We kept running, and fire was coming out right behind us”. In place of the normally free-flowing river, she saw “a sea of dead people. There was no space for the water, just people lying there dead”.

That quarter of a million deaths, and the associated destruction was caused by a bomb with the power equivalent to 18 kilo-tonnes of TNT. By way of comparison, most modern thermonuclear bombs would produce an explosion with the power equivalent to over 1 million tonnes of TNT (50 times more powerful). A nuclear explosion over a city today would destroy everything for miles, with zero chance of survival. It would be truly devastating beyond the capacity of the human mind to imagine.

The battle to-and-forth over Iran’s supposed aim to develop a nuclear bomb has gone on for years. Iran has succeeded in obfuscating
The most alarming conclusion of the IAEA report, which hasn’t yet been released publicly but has been circulated to IAEA member states and some journalists, is that it appears Iran has, despite its protestations, been working on a design for a nuclear warhead. This is not a report from the White House or 10 Downing Street, this is a report from a well-respected, impartial international organisation. Other findings include efforts by Iran to move its nuclear plants into underground facilities, where they can’t be monitored or attacked by the West, and an increase in the enrichment grade of its uranium from the 3.5% necessary for fuel production to 20%.and hiding its intentions, by claiming it has the right that any country has to use nuclear technology for clean fuel. This has been hard to dispute without solid evidence to the contrary, but the IAEA’s findings could change that dynamic considerably.

The IAEA’s conclusions, whilst not pointing to a smoking gun as such, should make startling reading. A nuclear-armed Iran would not only make life more dangerous for countries like Israel and even other Muslim countries in the region, it would make the world more precarious for all of us. The world has avoided all-out nuclear war before, and the Cold War has ended, but we are standing at the precipice of a new reality which pits the Western powers and their allies against an angry, hostile, paranoid Iran armed with the type of weapon which could wipe London, Paris or New York clean off the map.

Many have thus far ignored that threat. I’ve had my doubts too. But I dread the day, a day which may come sooner than we think, that we wake up to news that Iran has successfully tested a nuclear warhead.