MEMO: Status: Secret. Not to be revealed to our ‘partners’

Imagine my surprise when I went to a photo-copier in Portcullis House this morning, and there, on the glass, was this incredible secret memo on the Conservative’s political strategy:

Subject: Conservative Political Strategy

Date: 20th November 2011

From: SH

To: DC

Status: Secret. Not to be revealed to our ‘partners’.

This strategy note sets out the path to the 2015 election, and how we win the majority we seek for the second term.

1. Political Situation

As you always say, we should wake every morning and pinch ourselves to check we’re not dreaming. We’re implementing the full-throated Tory economic and social agenda that we came into politics to deliver, yet we’re doing it without winning an election, with the public largely blaming the Socialists and Liberals. Good times.

The latest polling suggests that the public blame Labour for the cuts. Our constant repetition of the key message ‘it’s all Labour’s fault’ and the focus-group tested phrase ‘the legacy of debt we inherited from the last Labour government’ is working. Most people now believe that Labour ‘wasted’ money on the NHS and benefits. They believe that the cuts, which we know to be necessary for a ‘post-bureaucratic age’, are the result of economic necessity. Margaret would be proud.

As for the Coalition, the strategy of using Clegg and Co as our lightning rod has proved successful beyond our wildest dreams. As we discussed back in June ’10, every time there’s dirty work to be done, we wheel out a Liberal. It’s working. The Liberal Democrats now face an existential crisis. When they lose half their seats, most will fall to us. [NB don’t forget what we promised Clegg in return for his ‘co-operation’]

2. The mid-term Battle-ground

We have set out five key battle-ground areas, each designed to prevent a Labour come-back. These will form the terrain for the mid-term battle 2012-2014. They are:

i) The economy. We are winning the arguments on the economy. Even with unemployment spiralling, and businesses struggling, we can continue to blame the Labour Party. It is important to continue to go for Balls. He knows too much. He’s the sharpest they’ve got. His cursed five-point plan actually makes sense. Let’s keep the character attacks up in the Chamber, and in our friendly press.

The economy will be back in growth by the mid-term. George will have the money he needs for the targeted tax breaks that every Tory Chancellor delivers in the pre-election budget. People on above-average incomes in places like Harlow and Thurrock will see some cash, just enough to make them vote Tory.

We can use the crisis as the perfect excuse to destroy the EU as well. A return to the pre-Maastricht days of a smaller, strategic common market is within our grasp. Again, the public will love a bit of Maggie-style hand-bagging.

We’ll have to ditch all the green stuff. It worked for Opposition, but it doesn’t really fly in Government. Huhne can take the blame for soaring gas prices and the fiasco over the ‘green deal’. My advice is to steer well clear of it all.

ii) Welfare reform

We know from the polling that most people think the welfare bill is out of control. We must continue to be the party of welfare reform – introducing common sense measures such as the benefits cap and the youth compulsory work scheme. If it looks like Labour is in favour of benefits claimants, and we are on the side of the tax-payer, we will win the argument. Let’s hope they fall into the elephant trap.

iii) Trade union reform

This is the big one. The preparations for next year’s big assault on the unions have been well-laid. The strikes on 30th Nov help us, of course. You must continue to press Ed Miliband on his stance. Next, we go for trade union funding of the Labour Party. Clegg has helpfully ruled out increases in state funding. That leaves caps on donations, and that means we can attack the funding of the Labour Party by trade unions. Our core voters love this stuff. They don’t belong to unions, or know anyone who does. Our co-ordinated messaging, across blogs, commentariat, and the Chamber with folks like Sharma and Heflon is working.

iv) Political reform

I’ve said it before, but this is genius. Well done you. A redrawing of the map to remove fifty MPs, at the time when politicians have never been so unpopular, sounds like a vote-winner. That it will disproportionately affect our opponents is a happy by-product! We can only hope that Labour discipline breaks down and their MPs fight each other for seats for the next 18 months. Any of our lot who lose out can of course be bought off with the odd governorship of somewhere sunny. Of course, our total defeat of the AV referendum proposals means that electoral reform for the Commons is dead for a generation.

v) ‘Base’ issues: crime, immigration, asylum

Despite TM’s recent cock-ups (when is the reshuffle, btw?) we continue to lead on the issues of law and order. We need a big speech in the New Year on anti-social behaviour, and some tough sounding measures. Worked for Tony. Also – that crack down on asylum- seekers that we talked about at our last trip to the Mail boardroom.

3. The election

We will be able to massively outspend our opponents. In the absence of ‘short money’ and with a collapse of both members and donors, the Lib Dems won’t be able to afford a travel card. Labour will have to rely on its members. We will outspend them two or three to one.

The central message will be: ‘things are on the up, why take the risk?’ It’s the classic tactic to win a second term. It worked for Wilson in ’66. Margaret in ’83 and Blair in ’01. The Americans point to the danger of ‘changing horses mid-stream’.

We will play the statesman card. We will get you to Libya again, with some cheering crowds. We should hope that the transitional government in Iran will be in place by May 2015. We may even have some jets on the new carriers by then. Our friends are being elected across Europe. With a republican back in the White House, we can expect some fantastic West Wing moments too.

Sorting out the economy. Modernising, with a dose of common sense. Bestriding the world stage.

This is our route to a majority.

SH.