“Above all, try something”. The famous words of Franklin Delano Roosevelt on the need for action to lift the United States out of the Great Depression in the 1930s. Well, the Chancellor is trying something. In fact he seems to be trying lots of things.
A National Loan Guarantee Scheme. A Business Finance Partnership. A Youth Contract. More Enterprise Zones. And an expanded Regional Growth Fund. The question is, will any of this actually work?
Only time will tell of course, but it is difficult to escape the notion that George Osborne is rather playing in the margins. Five billion pounds on infrastructure spending over the next three years is not exactly a “big bazooka”, so to speak.
We are told this will unlock another twenty billion from the private sector. But then we’ve heard similar assertions that the private sector would ride in to save the day before. I’ll believe it when I see it.
The Youth Contract could be good, creating incentives to take on young unemployed. It’s just a pity it’s come after 18 months without the Future Jobs Fund and much damage has already been done.
Cancellation of the planned rise in fuel duty will help people at the pump, though only offsets the effects of the increase in VAT. The Chancellor is a master of giving with one hand and taking with the other. It sometimes feels a little like one of those magic tricks where a coin turns up behind your ear…
One of the most striking aspects of the Autumn Statement was the extent to which public sector workers seem to bear the brunt. When their pay freeze ends, those in the sector can look forward to a long awaited pay rise. Of 1%. They will be pleased.
There is undoubtedly an opportunity here for Labour to contrast a pay increase of 1% for nurses and teaching assistants with the 49% pay increase enjoyed by FTSE 100 directors this past year. Something for something, anyone?
The response by Ed Balls focused heavily on the fact that, even by his own measures, George Osborne’s plan has not thus far succeeded. Borrowing is going up, and the deficit will not be eradicated within this Parliament – “we’ve had all of the pain and none of the gain”. A new one for the repertoire to sit proudly alongside “too far, too fast” and “hurting, not working”.
But Labour will need more than snappy sound-bites to wrest back the economic argument from the Tories. Polling suggests Labour are still held more responsible than the Coalition for the current economic climate. And in many ways there is not a lot Labour can do about this – it is a retrospective judgement on Labour’s time in office, which may or may not change the longer time goes on.
The focus for Labour should be on articulating a bold, positive vision of how a future Labour economy would be different. Ed Miliband is making a start, talking about a “better, more responsible capitalism”, and he should press on with this.
Above all Ed, try something.
Simon Fitzpatrick works on financial policy at Cicero Consulting.
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