Ken moves ahead in latest London poll


Six months ago, Boris Johnson had a 7% lead in 1st round vote share for the Mayoral election with YouGov. Today, that has been reversed, with Livingstone now enjoying a 2% first round lead with the same pollster. YouGov are also suggesting that Ken now lags behind Labour’s own vote less than he did sic months ago, whilst Boris has less of a lead over his own party that was once the case. You can see the figures below:

June 2010%
Jan 2011%
Labour vote share 51 49
First-round Livingstone support 41 46
‘Ken effect’ Minus 10 Minus 3
June 2010%?  Jan 2011%?
Conservative vote share  32  34
First-round Johnson support?  48  44
‘Boris effect’  Plus 16  Plus 10

According to YouGov boss Peter Kellner, Boris is now increasing seen as out of touch, he also has positive things to say about Livingstone’s focus on transport costs:

“As for Ken, it looks as his promise to cut fares on buses and the tube has made an impact. Among all Londoners, transport vies with crime as their top concern. But among Ken’s supporters, transport is clearly ahead.”

“The upshot of all this is a collapse in the ‘Boris Labour’ vote. Last June, when we looked at people who took sides when given a straight choice between the two men, Labour voters divided: Ken 77%, Boris 23%. Our latest figures are: Ken 88%, Boris 12%. If we assume the same turnout last time, this amounts to 100,000 Labour voters switching back from Boris to Ken.”

Kellner says the race is “too close to call” – but considering the swing to Livingstone in the last six months, the Ken campaign will probably take that.

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