Could the Lib Dems split?

It may seem like a “Question to which the answer is no”, but the resignation statement of a former Lib Dem councillor does pose that question. Paul Clein’s powerful attack on his party’s leadership includes the line:

“If and when (as I expect) the Lib Dems split after the 2015 election, I will consider joining the social liberal party which emerges from the ashes.”

In recent weeks the grouping Liberal Left was formed within the Lib Dems – a group designed to specifically oppose the coalition from within the party – and there will no doubt be some contentious debates at the party’s Gateshead conference in 10 days time.

That the conference is to be held in the North East is indicative of exactly the problem the Lib Dems are facing. In Northern towns the Lib Dems were only two years ago a serious force – but in subsequent local elections they were trounced. On current form there are further trouncings to come in seats like Redcar and Burnley in 2015.

The part of the Lib Dems that assumed power in the North – often winning votes by running to the left of Labour – now finds itself adrift. These people – let us call them the Social Democrats – didn’t join the Lib Dems to be apologists for a Tory government. Those who are more comfortable with the Tories – let us call them the classic Liberals – are more than happy to be apologists for such a “coalition”. Some, such as David Laws and Danny Alexander, even revel in it.

These two clans, brought together of course by the merger of two parties, now find themselves with little in common. In reality, it is hard to identify exactly what they ever had in common – besides electoralism and the slow, methodical spread of their councillors into any area with a disaffected populace. Now Lib Dems are on the receiving end of protest votes, rather than receiving them – and with 62% of their 2010 vote gone already – the two clans might want to take a good long look at each other, and decide what exactly it is (if anything) that they have in common. And if anything might be salvaged by each of them going their own way…