The Labour Party at war (in Australia)

The ballot to elect the next leader of the Australian Labour Party – and by extension the Prime Minister of Australia – is, in a straight numbers sense, a foregone conclusion.

The current Prime Minister, Julia Gillard is tipped to win the ballot being held tonight at UK time with between 65 -72 votes out of a caucus of 103. Kevin Rudd, the former PM and challenger is expected to get between 31- 38 votes. But this ballot isn’t about the straight majority support of caucus (the body that elects the leader of the Australian Labour Party). If it were, there wouldn’t be a ballot in the first place.

This ballot is about how many votes Kevin Rudd can muster and whether or not he has a platform of support to challenge again.

This ballot is about Julia Gillard finally stamping her authority on the leadership, and finally achieving a decisive victory that will allow her to govern with the authority and confidence that she has been so badly lacking.

This ballot is about whether or not the ghosts of the night in June 2010, when Julia Gillard replaced Kevin Rudd in a midnight leadership coup, might finally stop haunting the Australian Government.

The conventional wisdom in the Australian Labour Party is that if a challenger gets over 40 votes, they have enough support to mount a challenge again. Or “one more shot in the locker” as it’s colloquially referred to. It is unlikely that Kevin Rudd will get 40 votes, but he may come close. If Rudd gets less than 30 votes, then any future leadership ambitions he holds are done and dusted. And it is expected that he’ll retire to the backbench and not seek or contest the leadership again.

So all eyes tomorrow will be on where Kevin Rudd falls in that spectrum, and indeed how many votes Julia Gillard receives to determine just how much of a mandate she has to continue as leader of the Australian Labour Party.

If Kevin Rudd gets close to 40 votes, the leadership speculation will continue, as will the internal destabilisation of the Australian Government, and the very public airing of the Australian Labour Party’s dirtiest of dirty laundry. Not to mention the continuation of the very public vitriol that has been espoused in both directions by senior members of the Australian Government. Closer to 30, and the leadership tussle between Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd might finally be laid to rest and the Australian Labour Party might actually be able to finally move on and start governing again.

The likely outcome of Kevin Rudd receiving a vote in the high 30’s is that there will be another leadership battle in the coming months – except Julia Gillard’s name is unlikely to be on the leadership ticket next time.

So while the overall outcome of tonight’s ballot is a foregone conclusion – the future stability of the Australian Labour Party is still very much up for grabs. Which puts all of the “intrigue” around Ed Miliband’s leadership seem a little tame, really…