Labour’s economic house of cards

The Tsunami of leaks may have receded, but today’s budget is still one of the most leaked ever. There’s a reasoning behind that of course. Brief you’re going to do something very very unpopular (cutting the top rate to 40p). Then brief that you’re going to do something only very unpopular (cutting the top rate to 45p). That way by the time, almost a week later, that you announce that very unpopular thing, it already feels like part of the furniture, denting the attacks of your opponents.

The question is whether or not Osborne even needs to be concerning himself with Labour’s attacks. So far, they evidently aren’t slowing him down much.

In theory Labour holds all of the cards going into this budget (except the Ace of course, which is the ability to actually deliver the budget) – people think the economy is a mess, doubt it will improve and that the government’s priorities are wrong. On that polling, Labour should be relishing the chance to respond to Osborne’s tax giveaway for the top 1%. However, the public do concede (somewhat paradoxically) that the measures are necessary.

It’s on “necessity” that Labour’s economic house of cards falls down.

Most people blame the last Labour government – still – for the position the economy and the country is in, the Tories framed the debate early, and Labour has never recovered. The “necessity” is to clear up “Labour’s mess”. No amount of discussion of “Five point plans” and the need for “jobs and growth” seems to be disrupting that framing.

For the past two years in opposition (and beforehand in government) Labour has lagged behind the Tories on perceived economic competence. For much of that time it was possible to be sanguine about that. We had just come out of a global recession, at the tail end of a long government. The Tories were fresh and new, but once the public saw them mishandle the economy, we’d be back in the game. They mishandled it (unemployment up, growth down, borrowing up on projections) – but we’re still not in the game. The cuts are biting – and we’re still not in the game.

Either there’s a problem with the message, or there’s a problem with the messengers. Either way this week is vital in either crossing those hurdles, or discovering where our weaknesses lie.

We may never get a better line of attack than a tax cut for the richest whilst the poorest and most disadvantaged are made to pay. It’s stereotypical, selfish Tory 101. And at the moment it’s an open goal I fear we’re going to miss.

We need Miliband and Balls on top form, with a clear message that will resonate with the voters to capitalise this week. Or we need a fundamental rethink – before we’re out of the game for good.