A poll with holes?

Avatar

There has been predictable crowing from the Tories this morning over a poll that puts Boris Johnson 8 points ahead of Ken Livingstone with just a week to go in the race. That’s not a completely crazy result on its own – as I said when YouGov reported just a 2 point lead on Monday “I fully expected the polls to have worsened for Livingstone” – and that’s what ComRes is reporting.

However, when you look at the breakdown by borough you get some unusual results that require a few leaps of the imagination.

According to the ComRes numbers:

Boris leads in Hackney and Tower Hamlets

and

Ken leads in Wandsworth and Kensington and Chelsea (where ComRes reports he has 100% of the vote!)

I’m not saying that these numbers are definitely wrong – but London is a huge and complex electorate, and each borough has its own particular political micro-climate.

I’m not convinced the polling is necessarily picking up what is happening on the ground.

More from LabourList

DONATE HERE

We provide our content free, but providing daily Labour news, comment and analysis costs money. Small monthly donations from readers like you keep us going. To those already donating: thank you.

If you can afford it, can you join our supporters giving £10 a month?

And if you’re not already reading the best daily round-up of Labour news, analysis and comment…

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR DAILY EMAIL