Boris and Ken – the final poll

3rd May, 2012 9:47 am

The Evening Standard have an election day poll from YouGov. On the face of it it’s a bad one for Livingstone – Boris leads 53% to 47% after 2nd preferences. However that’s only amongst those certain to vote.

There are three details buried in the Evening Boris Standard write up that suggest that the race isn’t quite over yet:

  • If all Labour voters who are certain to vote cast their vote for Livingstone, he’ll win 54% to 46%.
    • Obviously not all Labour voters are backing Ken, and many will already have voted by post – but there’s still a significant proportion of the vote still to be won.
  • The final paragraph of the Standard report says: “Among all respondents, the result was virtually a dead heat, with Mr Johnson a fraction over 50 per cent and Mr Livingstone a fraction under 50 per cent.”
    • 68% of Johnson’s supporters said they were certain to vote, but only 62% of Ken supporters are certain to vote.
And – Labour is predicted to pick up three seats on the London Assembly as the Tories lose three seats.

Turnout is key – and Labour have spent far more time and effort on the “Ground war” than the Tories. Despite that, I’m not expecting a high turnout – it could be lower than 2008. But turning out the Labour vote could still swing this race.

It’s in the hands of Labour activists now.

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