I’ve noticed that no one seems to have calculated the notional change in the Labour vote between the 2010 General Election figures calculated by the Police Foundation, and the Police & Crime Commissioners elections on 15 November, nor the Conservative to Labour two-party swing in the same period.
So I thought I would.
The resulting tables, ranked by how Labour performed, are below. I’ve noted where the figures are particularly distorted by there only being two candidates. The obvious caveats about these being very low turnout elections with strong independent candidates apply.
For comparison, the YouGov opinion poll on polling day in the PCC elections suggests national voting intentions with a rather higher, 14%, increase in the Labour vote since 2010, and a swing of about 8.5%.
If people have local intel that explains particularly strong or weak outcomes below, please share in the comments.
| PCC area | Change in Lab vote | |
| Dyfed-Powys | 26.5% | 2 horse race |
| North Yorkshire | 22.7% | 2 horse race |
| Staffordshire | 17.0% | 2 horse race |
| Suffolk | 13.8% | |
| Northumbria | 11.0% | |
| West Yorkshire | 10.4% | |
| Greater Manchester | 10.2% | |
| Hertfordshire | 9.9% | |
| Derbyshire | 9.7% | |
| Thames Valley | 8.4% | |
| South Yorkshire | 8.3% | |
| West Mercia | 7.1% | |
| Warwickshire | 7.0% | |
| Bedfordshire | 6.7% | |
| Durham | 6.3% | |
| Leicestershire | 6.3% | |
| Nottinghamshire | 6.0% | |
| Wiltshire | 5.3% | |
| South Wales | 5.2% | |
| Sussex | 5.0% | |
| West Midlands | 4.0% | |
| Merseyside | 4.0% | |
| Lancashire | 4.0% | |
| Hampshire | 3.6% | |
| Surrey | 3.5% | |
| Cambridgeshire | 3.5% | |
| Avon & Somerset | 3.3% | |
| Norfolk | 3.1% | |
| Devon & Cornwall | 0.2% | |
| Dorset | -0.1% | |
| Northamptonshire | -1.4% | |
| Cleveland | -1.5% | |
| Essex | -2.1% | |
| Gwent | -2.9% | |
| North Wales | -3.4% | |
| Gloucestershire | -3.9% | |
| Cheshire | -4.1% | |
| Humberside | -6.2% | |
| Cumbria | -6.2% | |
| Lincolnshire | -8.7% | |
| Kent | -10.1% | |
| PCC area Swing from Con to Lab | ||
| Surrey | 16.2% | |
| Hampshire | 14.2% | |
| Suffolk | 12.5% | |
| West Yorkshire | 11.1% | |
| Nottinghamshire | 11.1% | |
| Greater Manchester | 11.0% | |
| Thames Valley | 11.0% | |
| Cambridgeshire | 11.0% | |
| Derbyshire | 10.9% | |
| Warwickshire | 10.4% | |
| Sussex | 10.0% | |
| Bedfordshire | 9.9% | |
| West Midlands | 9.2% | |
| Durham | 9.0% | |
| Wiltshire | 8.5% | |
| Essex | 8.5% | |
| West Mercia | 8.4% | |
| Avon & Somerset | 8.4% | |
| Northamptonshire | 8.4% | |
| Dorset | 7.9% | |
| Kent | 7.8% | |
| Hertfordshire | 7.3% | |
| Norfolk | 7.3% | |
| South Yorkshire | 7.2% | |
| Devon & Cornwall | 6.9% | |
| Lincolnshire | 6.9% | |
| Leicestershire | 6.8% | |
| South Wales | 6.6% | |
| Merseyside | 6.3% | |
| North Wales | 6.1% | |
| North Yorkshire | 5.7% | |
| Gwent | 5.3% | |
| Humberside | 4.5% | |
| Lancashire | 4.1% | |
| Northumbria | 3.9% | |
| Staffordshire | 3.4% | |
| Gloucestershire | 2.9% | |
| Dyfed-Powys | 2.8% | |
| Cumbria | 2.2% | |
| Cheshire | -0.1% | |
| Cleveland | -1.7% | |
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