A Northern Tory that Labour should be afraid of

The Labour Party spends a great deal of time beating itself up over its performance in Southern England. We know it simply isn’t good enough, but we can’t seem to put our finger on why exactly that’s the case. Is it demographics? No. Culture? Perhaps. Lack of basic party organisation in some areas? It’s certainly a factor.

But whilst we’re flagellating ourselves over our inability to perform south of the Watford gap (outside of London), we should remember that the political divisions within our nation run both ways. If Labour is weak in the South, then the Tories are hopelessly weak in the North. Not just in terms of MPs or councillors, but just in terms of being a socially acceptable option to vote for. Growing up in Gateshead I don’t think I ever heard anyone have anything positive to say about the Tories, nevermind admit voting for them. After the Miner’s Strike, the closure of the shipyards and the region being left to wither on the vine, it’s fair to say that people in the North East weren’t open to what the Tories were saying.

And they still aren’t, and in all likelihood won’t until the Tories apologise for the wilful destruction of the North in the Thatcher years. I think pigs flying over the Tyne Bridge sounds more likely at present.

Yet that doesn’t stop the Tories deluding themselves as to their prospects. Their candidate in the recent South Shields by-election told ConHome recently:

“I want to look only at this result in the context of South Shields and the North East. The May 2nd result actually returned a 35.7% centre-right vote share, leaving Labour with a 3,648 majority only due to the low turnout.”

So despite the fact that the Tory vote share halved from 2010 to 2013, and despite trying to cobble together a theoretical vote by adding Tory and UKIP votes together, and despite the turnout being low – Labour still won by thousands of votes. This is spun as a sign of hope for the Tories in the North East. It’s in fact a worse result than that achieved by Labour in Eastleigh (where Labours vote share actually increased). It’s a sign of just how toxic the Tory Party is in the North – people who would never dream of voting Tory will happily vote UKIP.

But if the Tories want a sign of hope in the North East, one does exist, in the guise of someone who knows just how far from victory the Tories are in the North. David Skelton is the former Deputy Director of Policy Exchange, but recently moved on to set up an organisation designed to explain why the Tories aren’t winning the working class and ethnic minority votes – especially in the North – and encourage them to take the steps needed to do so. This is a Tory with a deep understanding of the North as a community and the psyche of the place. This is a Tory who praises the Durham Miners Gala, and says they need to embrace the unions. This is a Tory who understands that in the part of the country he comes from, his party are deeply unpopular. Sure, he’s also advocated some policies that will fail in the North – like regional pay –  but this is a Tory who knows what he’s talking about when it comes to the North, and is committed to ensuring his party understand it too.

And because of that, he’s a Tory that we should be afraid of.

I hope his party don’t take any notice of him.