What’s our problem with older voters?

Older people have a problem with Labour. Over-60s have had the smallest swing back to Labour of any age group since 2010 – they are so resistant that Labour is still significantly behind the Tories in the demographic. However, older voters priorities are more closely aligned to Ed Miliband’s ‘One Nation’ vision than they were to Labour in the past and Government failures on key issues for older voters have opened up dividing lines which should favour Labour. We must exploit these opportunities in what will be a vital battleground demographic in 2015.

The latest Yougov tracker has Labour 4% behind the Tories with over-60s, despite an overall lead of 10%. A Populus poll of over-50s for Saga last week put the Tories on 25% and Labour on just 15%. This represents no change since 2010, when Labour was 10% behind the Tories amongst the 55-65 age group and 7% behind amongst over-65s. The significance of our failure to cut through with older demographics is underlined by the fact that in 2010 turnout was 73% amongst 55-65s and 76% with over-65s compared to an average of just 65%.

We know that lazy assumptions about older voters being naturally conservative are not true. Older voters are just as open to political arguments and persuasion as any other demographic. Our failure to gain traction is solely a result of not cutting through with a political offer that matches their concerns and priorities.

However, Labour also has a big opportunity with older voters. Ed Miliband’s ‘One Nation’ agenda is more closely aligned to older voters concerns than our offer in 2010 and older voters are not at all keen on the Government – 65% disprove of their record compared to the 61% average. Older voters are considerably more concerned about immigration, pensions and healthcare than the average voter and less concerned about tax, which suits Ed Miliband’s tougher stance on immigration, focus on the NHS and economic agenda.

There are emerging dividing lines on policy for older people which should also be a big advantage. The Government have moved at a snail’s-pace on reforming our care system which is inconsistent and too often fails older people.  Downing Street is publicly arguing for taking bus-passes and free TV-licenses away from wealthier pensioners. The Government’s changes to state pensions have negatively impacted far more people than they have admitted. In contrast, Labour’s emerging plan for a decent, affordable and sustainable national care system and vision of ‘whole person care’ has been well received, even if it didn’t get the cut-through it deserved.

Labour must build on our care plan and create a clear and specific ‘Ed’s pledge’ style campaign targeted at older voters and based on a strong policy offer. There is a robust argument for a new Ministry for Older People to bring together the different policy areas that affect pensioners, as the number of over-65s is set to double by 2030. We need to add the pension industry to energy and trains as a sector that we will force to be more open, transparent and comparable if we win in 2015. Older people should be at the heart of response to the big society, both as recipients of volunteer care but also as an invaluable volunteer resource.

Most importantly, we need to communicate our plans in a consistent, targeted and high-profile way to older voters. We know how older voters consume their news and politics and it is different to the average voter. Like public relations, political campaigns are too often dominated by the cult of the young. Labour can’t afford to make that mistake in 2015.