Ed Balls’ critique of Osbornomics is right – but is it too late?

There has been some furious and not particularly subtle briefing over the past week, suggesting that growth for the last quarter will be far stronger than we’ve seen lately. A return to consistent growth (which isn’t what we’re seeing, not yet) is what many Tories consider to be their escape route come 2015.

Britain is growing, they’ll say – Miliband and Balls crashed the car, so don’t give them the keys.

Nonsense of course – the UK economy has been stagnating for three years as Osborne’s hatchet-work served to suck demand out of the economy, leaving Britain’s GDP lower now than it was pre-crash (unlike the US, for example). And of course Britain was experiencing strong growth as Labour left office, only for it to be scuppered by Osbornomics.

But the fact that the Tory attacks will be errant nonsense doesn’t mean they won’t work.

If the Tories can convince the electorate that they’ll be better off (and safer) with the Tories, then Labour will be in real trouble. That polling lead wouldn’t last long under such circumstances.

So with that in mind, Ed Balls has rolled out his “prebuttal” of Tory crowing over GDP figures a few days in advance. In the Guardian today, he wrote:

there are growing signs that this nascent recovery is mainly benefiting those at the top. Bank bonuses soared to almost £4bn in April as top earners deferred their payouts to take maximum advantage of Osborne’s top-rate tax cut. But most families are not seeing any recovery in their living standards, with average wages after inflation still falling; in fact, family incomes are now facing the longest squeeze since the 1870s.

That’s a strong argument. A recovery that leaves most people worse off is no recovery worth crowing about. But is it not a bit late for Labour to be making this argument?

Over the past three years Balls and others have been consistently making the argument – rightly – that the government have been failing to deliver on jobs and growth. Yet the Tories will be hoping at the end of the week to point to a growing economy and falling unemployment. They’ll turn to Balls and say that they have delivered jobs and growth.

In response, Balls will say that the new jobs are largely poorly paid, and the growth is skewed towards the top of society – but that’s likely to be written off as shifting the goalposts. Arguing for a recovery – and an economy – that benefits those on average and low wages is something Labour has been doing in opposition, but all too often this has been timid and quiet compared to the repeated, message discipline driven “Jobs and Growth”.

A more nuanced response that focuses on the reality of our weak and faltering recovery should we welcomed. But this won’t be an easy sell for Labour, by any means. Unless, of course, people genuinely feel like they haven’t felt the benefit in their pockets come 2015 – and recovery or not, that’s entirely plausible.