An internal party briefing in the current polling position – sections of which have been leaked to LabourList – suggests that the party is bullish about its polling position, despite a turbulent political summer. The party’s own analysis of their polling position – produced internally and not intended for release – argues that the Labour vote “is solid over the summer”, contrary to the current media narrative.
The argument is that Labour’s polling numbers are as strong – or stronger – than they were before the summer break, with any shrinking of the party’s lead down to a strengthening of the Tory vote (and/or a fall in the UKIP vote).
The leaked report also says:
- Personal economic optimism isn’t on the rise – people don’t feel they’re better off
- Labour is ahead on all living standards issues
- That “don’t give the keys back” was “a disaster” an an election strategy for Obama
A Labour Party source said: “We do not comment on internal reports on polling”.
You can read the leaked sections of the internal party report below:
1) All the pollsters except Yougov show Lab vote UP over the summer:
– Populus restarted polling in July this year. Their first poll had lab on 38. Their most recent has lab on 40
– Comres had lab on 34 in May. Their most recent has lab on 37
– Mori had lab on 34 in May. Their most recent has lab on 37
– ICM had lab on 34 in May. Their most recent has lab on 36
– Opinium had lab on 35 in May. Their most recent has lab on 36
YouGov were way off the average in May when had lab on 42 and are now back in line at 37
The Lab lead may be down due to Tory improvements relative to UKIP, but Lab vote is solid over the summer
2) Improvements in macro-economic optimism are not translating into personal optimism. Because a recovery is only real if people feel it.
3) Labour is ahead on all the living standards issues (from YouGov which is asking which majority gov would be most beneficial which is odd as you can vote for a majority gov, you vote for a party and UKIP would hit Tory number, but still):
– Reduce cost living: Lab lead by 5
– Ensure wages rise in line with growth: Lab lead by 11
– Increase affordable housing: Lab lead by 11
– Raise pay of low wage workers: lab lead by 27
– Provide affordable childcare: Lab lead by 8
4) Lessons from the US
a. Romney led on ‘the economy’. .Obama led on ‘understanding economic problems facing people like you’
b. In 2010 Obama ran on don’t give the keys back. Was a disaster. Compounded image of being out of touch and lost the House for a generation