Our high streets are a more reliable measure of the economy than economists’ forecasts

On the face of it, the latest GDP figures look promising. And the recent poll of over 50 economists that suggests our economy will be back to its pre-crisis size in a matter of months will no doubt be taken as proof by some that the recovery is firmly underway. But economic forecasts and figures don’t tell the real story. The only figures that matter to most people are those in their bank accounts. And with a latest YouGov poll showing only 19% expect their own personal finances to improve in the next 12-months, there’s little evidence that the country is witnessing – or, more to the point, feeling – any real recovery.

If you want to see evidence of what’s going on in the real economy just look at high streets across the country. Significant parts of the country are still seeing an increase in empty shops – and pound shops, pawnbrokers, payday lenders and charity shops continue to be the high street success story under this government. Last month also saw the biggest fall in shopper numbers in almost a year.

For some time now I’ve known that government policy is wholly inadequate to support the transformation we need to bring high streets into the 21^st century. That’s why I carried out an independent review into the high street last year and why, now, as an advisor to the Labour Party, I’m touring the country and speaking to people at the coalface about the change they want to see. I’m meeting independent shop owners, town teams, community groups, members of local BID teams, councillors and regeneration bosses, among others, to hear their story. I want to know what’s working, what’s failed and what’s stopping progress and acting as a barrier to innovation.

My tour has only just begun but I’ve already been to David Cameron’s constituency of Witney and seen big problems right under the Prime Minister’s nose. On the edge of the Cotswolds with affluence all around you’d expect the high street to be overflowing with prosperity and stuffed with thriving businesses. But it isn’t and there is anger that the Prime Minister is so dismissive of small business concerns.

I met with a local florist who told me how she and other independents had been to see to the Prime Minister to complain about excessive and unfair business rates. He just shrugged and said there was nothing he could do. I saw the now empty men’s clothing business next door to Cameron’s constituency office, which had recently closed after 25-years. Another business told me they were going to close after 50-years in business and I also heard from struggling shop owners that had spent their retirement fund to pay off the lease before they closed.  These stories are in sharp contrast to the town’s picture postcard image and they reflect the real, deep structural problems our economy faces.

Injecting confidence and a newfound sense of purpose into high streets that have lost their way is a huge political challenge. It’s one that holds the key to delivering a community-led recovery that everyone can feel. The high street has always been a reliable barometer of the nation’s cultural, social and economic health, but it also has a role to play in developing civic pride and a strong sense of local identity. Building more resilient local economies, fostering social capital and creating strong communities are just some of the gains that flow from successful high streets.

Labour realizes this and that’s why I’m delighted to be working with Chuka Umunna, Toby Perkins and others on the new advisory group to look at what policies can best support diverse high streets and help them adjust to the massive structural changes that are sweeping through our towns all over the country. In his first conference speech as leader, Ed Miliband spoke about the importance of being on the side of people who want to protect their high street from looking like every other street, and from this commitment we can develop policy to put high streets back at the heart of the community.

In the coming weeks and months I may well be visiting a high street near you. You can let me know the challenges facing your high street by emailing me or going to http://www.vanishinghighstreet.com

Bill Grimsey is the former CEO of Wickes, a Labour “Retail Champion” and a member of the High Streets Advisory Group