The 82 Tory MPs who would lose to Labour if the Ashcroft marginal poll is replicated next year

25th May, 2014 11:16 am

Yesterday’s Ashcroft poll that showed a 6.5% to Labour in the battleground marginals has put a spring in the step of many Labour staffers, activists and candidates after a mixed bag of results on Thursday – and ahead of a tough looking night of European election results.

Perhaps the most eye catching claim from Ashcroft as he announced his polling was that if the swing he’s recorded in the battleground seats he polled is replicated across the full set, Labour would take 83 seats that the Tories won in 2010. Taking away Corby which Labour has already taken in a by-election, that means there are 82 Tory MPs who would lose their seats if the Ashcroft poll comes true. That would deliver a 32 seat majority for Labour, and that’s before counting gains from the Lib Dems.

Tory rosette 2014-04-22 11-42-50

However, it’s important to remember that this is only a poll – albeit a very thorough one. On Thursday there were actual elections that showed us falling back thanks to UKIP in areas like Thurrock, Basildon and Great Yarmouth that the Ashcroft poll would see us winning next year. It does suggest though – as Labour staffers were arguing ahead of election day – that the focus on marginals is seeing some rewards.

So which Tory MPs would lose their seats?

Frontbenchers who are at risk: Edward Timpson, PUS Children and Families; Esther McVey, Minister for Employment; Stephen Crabb, PUS for Wales and Whip; Brandon Lewis, PUS CLG; David Mundell, PUS Scotland; Nicky Morgan, Financial Sec to Treasury and Minister for Women; Kris Hopkims, Minister for Housing; Anna Soubry, Minister for Defence Personnel, Welfare and Veterans.

Backbenchers who are at risk: Robert Halfon, Jacob Rees Mogg, Charlie Elphicke and Chloe Smith.

Here’s the full list:

Region Seat Held by Lab Con Winner Lab Maj
Eastern SOUTH BASILDON & EASTTHURROCK Stephen Metcalfe MP Con 37.5% 37.4% Lab 0.1%
West Midlands BURTON Andrew Griffiths Con 38.4% 38.0% Lab 0.3%
West Midlands RUGBY Mark Pawsey Con 37.9% 37.5% Lab 0.4%
South East READING WEST Alok Sharma Con 37.0% 36.7% Lab 0.4%
South East CRAWLEY Henry Smith Con 38.8% 38.3% Lab 0.5%
Yorkshire and Humber CALDER VALLEY Craig Whittaker Con 33.5% 32.9% Lab 0.6%
London FINCHLEY & GOLDERS GREEN Mike Freer Con 40.2% 39.5% Lab 0.7%
London BATTERSEA Jane Ellison Con 41.6% 40.8% Lab 0.8%
South West BRISTOL NORTH WEST Charlotte Leslie Con 32.4% 31.5% Lab 1.0%
North West CREWE & NANTWICH Edward Timpson Con 40.5% 39.3% Lab 1.2%
Yorkshire and Humber BRIGG & GOOLE Andrew Percy Con 39.6% 38.4% Lab 1.3%
Wales PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE Stephen Crabb Con 37.7% 36.3% Lab 1.4%
London ILFORD NORTH Lee Scott Con 40.7% 39.2% Lab 1.5%
Wales ABERCONWY Guto Bebb Con 31.0% 29.3% Lab 1.7%
Eastern HARLOW Robert Halfon Con 40.2% 38.4% Lab 1.8%
West Midlands STOURBRIDGE Margot James Con 38.2% 36.2% Lab 2.1%
West Midlands STAFFORD Jeremy Lefroy Con 39.5% 37.4% Lab 2.1%
Eastern PETERBOROUGH Stewart Jackson Con 36.0% 33.9% Lab 2.2%
North West SOUTH RIBBLE Lourraine Fullbrook Con (NB standing down) 41.2% 39.0% Lab 2.2%
Yorkshire and Humber COLNE VALLEY Jason McCartney Con 32.9% 30.5% Lab 2.4%
South East DOVER Charlie Elphicke Con 40.0% 37.5% Lab 2.5%
West Midlands DUDLEY SOUTH Chris Kelly Con 39.5% 36.6% Lab 2.9%
Eastern GREAT YARMOUTH Brandon Lewis Con 39.7% 36.6% Lab 3.1%
South West NORTH EAST SOMERSET Jacob Ress Mogg Con 38.2% 34.8% Lab 3.4%
Yorkshire and Humber CLEETHORPES Martin Vickers Con 39.1% 35.6% Lab 3.4%
North West ROSSENDALE & DARWEN Jake Berry Con 38.7% 35.3% Lab 3.5%
South East MILTON KEYNES SOUTH Iain Stewart Con 38.7% 35.1% Lab 3.6%
East Midlands HIGH PEAK Andrew Bingham Con 38.1% 34.4% Lab 3.7%
Eastern NORWICH NORTH Chloe Smith Con 37.9% 34.1% Lab 3.8%
Scotland DUMFRIESSHIRE, CLYDESDALE & TWEEDDALE (W) David Mundell Con 35.4% 31.5% Lab 3.9%
Wales VALE OF GLAMORGAN Alum Cairns Con 39.4% 35.3% Lab 4.2%
Wales CARMARTHEN WEST & SOUTH PEMBROKESHIRE Simon Hart Con 39.2% 34.6% Lab 4.5%
Eastern WATFORD Richard Harrington Con 33.2% 28.4% Lab 4.8%
Yorkshire and Humber ELMET & ROTHWELL Alec Shelbrooke Con 41.0% 36.1% Lab 4.9%
Eastern STEVENAGE Stephen McPartland Con 39.9% 34.9% Lab 5.0%
North West PENDLE Andrew Stephenson Con 37.4% 32.4% Lab 5.0%
London EALING CENTRAL & ACTON Angie Bray Con 36.6% 31.5% Lab 5.1%
South West SOUTH SWINDON Robert Buckland Con 40.8% 35.3% Lab 5.5%
West Midlands WARWICK & LEAMINGTON Chris White Con 41.9% 36.1% Lab 5.8%
London HARROW EAST Bob Blackman Con 44.1% 38.2% Lab 5.9%
East Midlands LOUGHBOROUGH Nicky Morgan Con 41.0% 35.1% Lab 5.9%
West Midlands CANNOCK CHASE Aidan Burley Con 39.6% 33.6% Lab 6.0%
North West WIRRAL WEST Eather McVey Con 42.8% 36.0% Lab 6.8%
Yorkshire and Humber KEIGHLEY Kris Hopkins Con 42.3% 35.4% Lab 6.8%
West Midlands WORCESTER Robin Walker Con 39.9% 33.0% Lab 6.9%
London CROYDON CENTRAL Gavin Barwell Con 40.0% 33.0% Lab 7.0%
North West CITY OF CHESTER Stephen Mosley Con 41.6% 34.1% Lab 7.5%
North West BLACKPOOL NORTH & CLEVELEYS Paul Maynard Con 43.0% 35.3% Lab 7.7%
East Midlands EREWASH Jessica Lee Con 40.7% 33.0% Lab 7.8%
South West KINGSWOOD Chris Skidmore Con 41.8% 33.9% Lab 7.9%
North West BURY NORTH David Nuttall Con 41.7% 33.7% Lab 8.0%
East Midlands NORTHAMPTON NORTH Michael Ellis Con 35.8% 27.6% Lab 8.2%
South West GLOUCESTER Richard Graham Con 41.7% 33.4% Lab 8.2%
West Midlands NUNEATON Marcus Jones Con 43.4% 35.0% Lab 8.4%
West Midlands HALESOWEN & ROWLEY REGIS James Morris Con 43.1% 34.7% Lab 8.4%
Eastern IPSWICH Ben Gummer Con 41.2% 32.6% Lab 8.6%
South East HASTINGS & RYE Amber Rudd Con 43.6% 34.6% Lab 9.0%
London ENFIELD NORTH Nick de Bois Con 45.0% 35.8% Lab 9.2%
South East HOVE Mike Weatherley Con 39.5% 30.2% Lab 9.3%
London BRENTFORD & ISLEWORTH Mary Macleod Con 40.1% 30.7% Lab 9.4%
Yorkshire and Humber PUDSEY Stuart Andrew Con 41.6% 32.0% Lab 9.6%
South East BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN Simon Kirby Con 41.4% 31.5% Lab 9.9%
Eastern BEDFORD Richard Fuller Con 42.4% 32.4% Lab 10.0%
North West WARRINGTON SOUTH David Mowat Con 39.5% 29.3% Lab 10.2%
Yorkshire and Humber DEWSBURY Simon Reevell Con 38.7% 28.5% Lab 10.2%
South West PLYMOUTH SUTTON & DEVONPORT Oliver Colvile Con 38.2% 27.8% Lab 10.4%
East Midlands LINCOLN Karl McCartney Con 41.7% 31.0% Lab 10.7%
North West WEAVER VALE Graham Evans Con 42.8% 32.0% Lab 10.7%
South West STROUD Neil Carmichael Con 45.1% 34.3% Lab 10.8%
North CARLISLE John Stevenson Con 43.8% 32.8% Lab 11.0%
North West MORECAMBE & LUNESDALE David Morris Con 45.9% 34.8% Lab 11.0%
West Midlands WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTHWEST Paul Uppal Con 45.5% 34.2% Lab 11.3%
Eastern WAVENEY Peter Aldous Con 45.2% 33.7% Lab 11.5%
East Midlands AMBER VALLEY Nigel Mills Con 43.9% 32.1% Lab 11.8%
North West LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD Eric Ollerenshaw Con 41.8% 29.6% Lab 12.2%
East Midlands BROXTOWE Anna Soubry Con 44.8% 32.5% Lab 12.3%
North STOCKTON SOUTH James Wharton Con 44.8% 32.4% Lab 12.3%
East Midlands SHERWOOD Mark Spencer Con 45.3% 32.7% Lab 12.6%
Wales CARDIFF NORTH Jonathan Evans Con 43.6% 31.0% Lab 12.6%
London HENDON Matthew Offord Con 48.6% 35.8% Lab 12.8%
Eastern THURROCK Jackie Doyle-Price Con 43.1% 30.3% Lab 12.8%
West Midlands NORTH WARWICKSHIRE Dan Byles Con 46.6% 33.7% Lab 12.9%

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