Third polling company now show small Tory lead

Last Monday saw two polls give the Conservatives their first lead over Labour in two years. This week, Lord Ashcroft and ICM are joined by a third, Populus, who give the Tories a one point advantage over Labour in voting intention for the general election. The results are:

Conservatives 35%, Labour 34%, UKIP 14%, Lib Dems 8%

You can view the full fieldwork here.

However, different polling companies continue to offer very different results. The weekend saw YouGov offer a three point lead to Labour (37% to 34%), while ComRes had Labour four points ahead, but only with a disappointing 33%.

When ComRes polled on the European elections, the news was worse for Labour: of those “absolutely certain to vote”, Labour limp in to second place on 24% – a full eleven points behind UKIP. ICM also had a European elections poll on Sunday, which told a vastly different story: Labour on 29%, Tories on 26% and UKIP in third on 25%.

It’s hard to know what to make of these – there doesn’t appear to be any distinct pattern emerging. But with another Lord Ashcroft poll published at 4 o’clock this afternoon, Labour will be hoping for some good news before the end of the day.