Who’d be a British political leader at the moment? Clegg is “toxic”. Cameron looks set to lose the Juncker battle that he’d staked so much on. And Ed Miliband? Well it’s probably good – this week at least – that the Labour leader doesn’t really read the newspapers. As he told Buzzfeed rfecently:
“It’s always a good idea not to read the newspapers…You get a lot of advice in the newspapers about what you should do.”
In recent days Miliband has been inundated with advice from the helpful to the downright poisonous via the staggeringly obvious.
As several people have cruelly but acerbically noted, when Neil Kinnock comes rushing to your defence against a hostile press, that’s both unfortunate and instructive. It’s also baffling – surely Kinnock realised that “Kinnock defends Miliband” is a less than helpful framing – and allowed the papers to rehash their reductive “Miliband = Kinnock” lines all over again. (And, incidentally, the reason that Miliband’s having a tough time isn’t just because the press have it in for him, and nor, despite some of their gaffes, is it all down to Miliband’s staff either).
What’s disappointing though is that at the end of what should have been a big week for Labour (with the launch of the weighty IPPR “Condition of Britain” report) has descended into recriminations and disappointment. That pattern was disappointing three years ago in the early days of Miliband’s leadership – it’s downright mortifying to see only 11 months from election day.
The reason we’re here is that much of Labour’s quiet calm and unity has been predicated on two things – that the election would be won, and that “the project” around Miliband’s leadership would come together over time.
Yet an election win – still possible – now feels further away than six months ago, not closer. The European and Local elections were difficult for Labour, and the results were chastening. No longer can anyone argue that Labour are heading for victory as long as errors are avoided and a safety first approach is adopted. No-one can allow that kind of complacency any more. And yet a troubling report in the Mail on Sunday yesterday suggested that Miliband’s team believe that Labour’s poll lead is “solid” on 35%. Which is true – except when that lead has come face to face with the electorate, when its solidity appears to crumble. The leaked document that the Mail relied on for their story says that Labour HQ wants to see a polling bounce of 3-5 points (turning 35% into a 38-40% strategy). That means Labour holding onto every single voter that currently backs the party in the most optimistic of recent polls, and/or gaining millions of new voters. The current direction of travel makes that seem unlikely.
At the same time, more policy from Miliband has not yet generated greater clarity around “the project”. For a long time a prevailing critique of Miliband’s leadership was that the party lacked sufficient policy. Now that’s no longer the case – Labour already has a broad policy offer that would amount to a good first year of action from a Miliband government. Yet the public – and even some in the party – still question what exactly Miliband’s Britain would look like. What’s needed is a story of how Labour would change Britain for the better in which that policy can be rooted. Labour faces an existential crisis as too many of those we’ve considered “our voters” question what and who we’re for.
The Labour Party finds itself stuck in a rut at a time when forward momentum is crucial. The Party’s National Policy Forum – where the manifesto takes shape – is less than a month away. The Scottish Independence referendum is in September, followed days later by Labour Party conference. The days in which the mood can be changed and momentum restored are dwindling. And what’s required is passion and an ability to explain coherently why Labour matters – and why we are the answer to what makes people angry about politics, society and the economy. The Labour Party is supposed to be a “moral crusade”, but all too often it can veer into looking like a list of commitments doled out from on high by men in suits.
The Labour Party needs to tell a story that knits together why we all bother with politics (because, lets be frank, doing something else might be easier) and why/how Labour would build a better Britain. We can rebuild Labour as a moral crusade or allow it to become a dry and calculating spreadsheet. The difference between the two is far greater than whether or not Labour wins a single election – it’s whether the party has a meaningful future in the decades to come.
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