Effing Tories and effing Labour…effing hell

In Scotland the nationalists have already won. That is not a prediction for Thursday’s referendum. Unless the No vote climbs back to the 60% level on the big day – the score that it reached in opinion polls through the summer – then whatever share of the vote the Yes camp achieves must be seen as a kind of victory.

The independence campaign has caused panic at the heart of Westminster. It has provoked a fast-tracked agreement between the three main UK parties to proceed with further and radical devolution. It has exposed how out of touch the London machine has become, not just from Scotland but from other parts of the UK as well. And it has forced political leaders in SW1 to face up to all this. Alex Salmond was right to point out yesterday that George Osborne had looked “overwrought” eight days ago as the possibility of a Yes victory finally sank in. Sometimes events get out of control and politicians’ frailties and limitations are revealed. And they do not like it. The appearance of competence, and claims of omniscience, are shattered. We have seen this before, during the fuel protests of 2000, in the immediate aftermath of the death of the princess of Wales in 1997, and during the riots of the summer of 2011. Suddenly the people seem to be in control, and there is not much the supposedly powerful can do about it.

That is one of the reasons, I think, why some left-leaning observers have been excited by the prospect of a win for the Yes side. It would represent, in part, a rejection of orthodoxy and the status quo, a simple two fingers being held up as a response to what the grown-ups have been telling us all these years. I support the No side because I don’t think the reality of independence would be a good option for Scotland. But I understand the sentiment of “sod the lot of you – could we really do any worse on our own?”

David Cameron was candid when he referred to Scotland’s view of the Conservative party (“the effing Tories”). It was an admission of the extent to which “detoxification” of the Tory “brand” – in Scotland at least – has failed. But what about effing Labour, or the effing Scottish Labour party at least? Why are so many former Labour voters apparently considering a Yes vote for independence? It is the Westminster machine, whether operating in red or blue colours, that is being rejected. That is the verdict which neither of the two big parties can escape. Scottish voters have been taken for granted, especially by Labour, for too long. And I don’t suppose the Liberal Democrats would be spoken about without the use of a few f words in many parts of Scotland right now either.

This is all quite exciting, in a troubling kind of way. With 97% voter registration and a possible 80%+ turnout this is democracy at work. And yet the unpleasantness and dishonesty of the referendum campaign have both been shocking. A “win” by only a couple of percentage points for either side will not settle things for very long. This is hardly a recipe for stability or a cohesive society.

And having seen the “experts” of Westminster so completely confounded in the past fortnight, please do not take any supposedly “authoritative” assertions about what will happen next too seriously. Nobody knows what will happen if there is a Yes vote on Friday. The shock of a rejection of the UK will be enormous. I am not sure that this is an earthquake any prime minister could survive, but that is just a guess. And in any case, I still think the No campaign will win, just.

But really. Effing hell.