The Top 100 UKIP leaning Labour seats

UKIP

By Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin

In our recent book, Revolt on the Right, we compiled a list of the most demographically receptive seats in the country for Ukip. This allowed us to rank all seats in the country according to how favourable their populations are for Ukip, using the most recent census data.

The ideal seats for Ukip share key characteristics: they have lots of ‘left behind’ voters who we also know from our research are the most receptive to Ukip and its policies. These ideal seats also have very low numbers of voters who have, instead, tended to remain resistant to Ukip, including university graduates, ethnic minorities and people in professional and economically secure occupations.  This is a useful first exercise in filtering through all seats to find those where – if Ukip stood a strong candidate and knocked on plenty of doors – they would probably find the most voters receptive to their message.

UKIP

What we are not saying is that Ukip will enjoy strong support in all of these seats. It might be that they do not target these seats, or the local Labour MP has a formidable majority, or a strong local profile, making a Ukip insurgency unlikely. In order to find seats that Ukip actually has a chance of winning, you would need to look at both demography and the local political context, such as whether the vote is split across three parties, whether Ukip is targeting the seat and has been recruiting support through local elections.

Take the seat of Knowsley as an example. This is the 5th most Ukip-friendly seat in the country. But it will be incredibly difficult for Ukip to win the seat because of the very large Labour majority of over 25,000. In fact, even whilst most of the most demographically favourable seats for Ukip have Labour incumbents they are often protected by large majorities.

The most potent Ukip challenges to Labour come in seats such as Great Grimsby, where the radical right insurgents have already put in strong local showings, and the local Labour Party has a smaller majority to fall back on.

However, even a large majority may not provide total safety from a strong local Ukip candidate. Clacton was the number one most Ukip favourable seat on our measures prior to Douglas Carswell’s defection. His strong local profile certainly contributes to his apparent ability to bring most Conservative voters with him to his new party, but so, no doubt, do their sympathies for his new party.

While Labour MPs in the safe seats near the top of this list would be unlikely to jump ship, the overnight disappearance of a 12,000 vote Conservative majority in Clacton should give them pause. Their seats have almost as many voters from UKIP sympathising groups as Douglas Carswell’s has.

Yesterday, we published the Top 100 of these seats that are currently in Conservative hands. Today, we are releasing the Top 100 seats that are currently held by Labour. You can find them below. The overall ranking of each seat in the full Revolt on the Right database is provided in the final column.

Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin are the authors of “Revolt on the Right”

Seat Region Labour Majority (votes) Labour majority (%) Ukip Vote 2010 Overall ranking in Revolt on the Right
Rhondda Wales 11,553 37.2 1.2 2
Blaenau Gwent Wales 10,516 32.5 1.5 3
Kingston upon Hull East Yorkshire and the Humber 8,597 25.1 8 4
Easington North East 14,982 42.9 4.7 5
Knowsley North West 25,690 57.5 2.5 6
Barnsley East Yorkshire and the Humber 11,090 28.9 4.5 7
Aberavon Wales 11,039 35.7 1.6 8
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Wales 4,056 12.6 2.7 9
Doncaster North Yorkshire and the Humber 10,909 26.3 4.3 10
Liverpool, Walton North West 19,818 57.7 2.6 11
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Yorkshire and the Humber 10,979 23.7 Did not stand 12
Great Grimsby Yorkshire and the Humber 714 2.2 6.2 13
Ashfield East Midlands 192 0.4 1.9 14
Bolsover East Midlands 11,182 25.4 3.9 15
Cynon Valley Wales 29,876 32.2 3.4 17
Wentworth and Dearne Yorkshire and the Humber 13,920 33.1 8.1 18
Houghton and Sunderland South North East 10,990 28.9 2.7 20
Ogmore Wales 13,246 38.2 2.3 22
Walsall North West Midlands 990 2.7 4.8 23
Islwyn Wales 12,215 35.2 2.7 24
Stoke-on-Trent North West Midlands 8,235 20.5 6.2 25
Washington and Sunderland West North East 11,458 30.7 3.3 26
Hartlepool North East 5,509 14.4 7 27
Blackpool South North West 1,852 5.3 3.8 29
Barnsley Central Yorkshire and the Humber 11,771 30 12.2 30
Bishop Auckland North East 5,218 12.7 2.7 31
Plymouth, Moor View South West 1,588 3.8 7.7 33
Hemsworth Yorkshire and the Humber 9,844 22.4 Did not stand 34
Stoke-on-Trent South West Midlands 4,130 10.4 3.4 35
Bootle North West 21,181 51.3 6.1 36
Torfaen Wales 9,306 24.7 2.3 37
Mansfield East Midlands 6,012 12.4 6.2 38
Workington North West 4,575 11.7 2.2 39
South Shields* North East 6,505 25.8 24.2 41
Don Valley Yorkshire and the Humber 3,595 8.3 4.4 43
Neath Wales 9,775 26.3 2.2 46
Halton North West 15,504 37.5 3 47
Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Yorkshire and the Humber 5,740 18.2 5.4 48
Stockton North North East 6,676 16.9 3.9 49
Swansea East Wales 10,838 33.2 2.6 50
Scunthorpe Yorkshire and the Humber 2,549 6.9 4.6 51
Jarrow North East 12,908 33.3 Did not stand 52
Liverpool, West Derby North West 18,467 51.6 3.1 54
North Durham North East 12,076 29.5 3.3 56
Llanelli Wales 4,701 12.6 2.8 58
Sedgefield North East 8,696 21.6 3.7 59
St Helens North North West 13,101 29.4 4.7 60
St Helens South and Whiston North West 14,122 30.6 2.7 61
Wigan North West 10,487 23.8 5.7 63
Blyth Valley North East 6,668 17.3 4.3 64
Bassetlaw East Midlands 8,215 16.6 3.6 65
Rotherham* Yorkshire and the Humber 5,318 24.5 21.8 66
Nottingham North East Midlands 8,138 23.7 3.9 68
Birkenhead North West 15,395 43.6 Did not stand 69
Caerphilly Wales 10,755 27.6 2.4 70
Wansbeck North East 7,031 18.4 2.5 72
Makerfield North West 12,490 28.5 Did not stand 75
Clwyd South Wales 2,834 8.2 2.4 77
Vale of Clwyd Wales 2,509 7.1 1.4 78
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland North East 1,677 3.6 4.1 79
North West Durham North East 7,612 17.4 2.9 86
Barrow and Furness North West 5,208 11.8 1.9 89
North Tyneside North East 12,884 27.8 2.8 90
Copeland North West 389 9 2.3 91
Denton and Reddish North West 9,831 26.1 5.5 93
Gateshead North East 12,549 32.8 2.9 94
Rother Valley Yorkshire and the Humber 5,866 12.6 5.6 96
Wallasey North West 8,507 20.4 2.9 97
Chesterfield East Midlands 549 1.2 3.1 100
North East Derbyshire East Midlands 2,445 5.2 5.6 103
Garston and Halewood North West 16,877 39.4 3.6 104
Blaydon North East 2,277 20.3 Did not stand 105
Dudley North West Midlands 649 1.7 8.5 106
Delyn Wales 2,272 6.1 1.8 107
Telford West Midlands 981 2.4 5.9 108
West Bromwich West West Midlands 5,651 15.6 4.3 109
Ynys Mon Wales 2,461 7.1 3.5 113
Ashton-under-Lyne North West 9,094 23.7 4.4 115
Leigh North West 12,011 27.1 3.5 116
Middlesbrough North East 8,211 26 11.8 119
Darlington North East 3,388 7.9 2.8 120
Alyn and Deeside Wales 2,919 7.3 2.5 122
Sheffield South East Yorkshire and the Humber 10,505 25.4 4.6 131
Doncaster Central Yorkshire and the Humber 6,229 14.9 3.4 132
Stoke-on-Trent Central West Midlands 5,566 17.1 4.3 134
Newport East Wales 1,650 4.8 2 135
Wolverhampton North East West Midlands 2484 7.1 3.3 138
Worsley and Eccles South North West 4337 10.4 4.9 141
Sunderland Central North East 6725 15.8 2.6 143
Ellesmere Port and Neston North West 4,331 9.8 3.7 146
Kingston upon Hull North Yorkshire and the Humber 641 1.9 4.1 147
Heywood and Middleton North West 5,971 12.9 2.6 148
Sheffield, Heeley Yorkshire and the Humber 5,807 14.2 3.7 150
Wrexham Wales 3658 11.1 2.3 151
Corby* East Midlands 7,791 21.8 14.3 155
Stalybridge & Hyde North West 2,744 6.7 3.3 157
Penistone & Stocksbridge Yorkshire and the Humber 3,049 6.5 4.2 158
Birmingham Northfield West Midlands 2,782 6.7 164
Wakefield Yorkshire and the Humber 1613 3.7 Did not stand 165
* and bold text indicates figures are from by-election results

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