Was the referendum result good for the union, but bad for Labour?

Was this the high water mark of secessionist sentiment in Scotland? At first it may seem an outlandish idea. Scottish Nationalism has been a riding tide for over thirty years – from fringe cause, to Westminster representation, to a Scottish parliament, minority government and then majority government. But something also broke in the movement this week. The SNP dominated Yes campaign ran to a large extent on the idea that if Scotland voted for independence, the hated Tories would never rule over the country again.

This appears like an incredibly divisive argument, given that 17% of Scottish voters opted for the Conservatives in the 2011 Holyrood elections. And Labour can’t really criticise anyone for playing the ‘evil Tories’ card. But it may have backfired.

The strategy was successful in targeting former Labour voters in the West of Scotland and that seems to indicate it may have particularly resonated with working class Catholic voters. Three out of the four local authorities that voted for independence returned majority Labour councils at the last local elections – an incredibly difficult thing to do under Scotland’s STV electoral system for local government. Those three local authorities – Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire – are in the West of Scotland.

But the SNP failed to carry their traditional north eastern heartlands such as Aberdeenshire and Perth and Kinross for independence. The Westminster seats that the SNP has represented in those areas, were, in the main, held by Conservatives in the post-war era. It may be that fiery talk of social justice put off these ‘tartan Tories’. If the SNP can’t craft an independence message that resonates in Royal Deeside as well as well as Drumchapel, they may never get over the independence line.

Furthermore, they may have found themselves down a cul-de-sac. For some time, the SNP have tried to portray themselves as social democratic, even ‘the Labour party your father knew’. But the voters that this message has tried to connect with, if they follow UK trends, are a diminishing proportion of the population. In the short term, the SNP spearheading the Yes campaign ran the Unionist parties close, and won the concession of Devo Max. But, as long as the Unionist Parties redeem their ‘solemn vow’, the SNP will have to think very hard about what their new strategy is.

That does not mean good news for the Labour party. While the ex-industrial working class may be a shrinking part of the population, they are still Labour’s bedrock in Scotland. In many ways, the party has reaped what it sowed. For years, a main plank of Labour argument has not been positive but has been anti-Tory. That meant that when the line of attack was used for independence, Labour leaders struggled to find a retort.

The days when it didn’t matter that your Constituency Labour Party had fewer than a 100 members as long as you had a majority of more than 10,000 have been over for a long time. I hope the leaders of our party now realise it. Labour desperately needs to reconnect with the communities it has traditionally represented, for whom anti-Toryism is far more powerful than any allegiance to Labour.

It will take long hard work, beyond electioneering. Community organising could make the difference between now and the next referendum, which may be in another ten to 20 years time. Someone in Scottish Labour should get on the phone to Movement for Change, and quick.