Latest Mayoral poll shows Hodge joining Jowell as front-runner

Margaret Hodge has joined Tessa Jowell as one of the front-runners in the Labour Mayoral race, according to the latest Evening Standard poll. Today’s poll, carried out by YouGov, shows that amongst Labour supporters Hodge is in clear second place, four points behind Jowell, and four ahead of the next contenders Doreen Lawrence and Sadiq Khan.

But aside from Hodge and Jowell, it’s a somewhat close contest – Diane Abbott is only two points behind Lawrence and Khan and she is one point ahead of David Lammy.

It’s all to play for – particularly as David Lammy and Christian Wolmar are the only candidates to have officially declared they’re running. Lawrence is thought to be unlikely to run, so how her supporters spread to other candidates could play a big role in deciding the race.

The figures are as follows:

Tessa Jowell 23%, Margaret Hodge 19%, Baroness Doreen Lawrence 15%, Sadiq Khan 15%, Diane Abbott 13%, David Lammy 12%, Lord Andrew Adonis 2% and Christian Wolmar.

As we noted last time, the are two big issues that must be taken into consideration when looking at these stats. Firstly, just because those polled are Labour supporters it does not mean they are party members, or that they will sign up as official supporters.  Secondly, although YouGov polled 1,002 people, the fact that these figures only show Labour supporters – and it excludes the don’t knows and those who said said “none of these” – means the sample size will be much smaller. So it’s likely that the margin of error is around 6%. So although Hodge and Jowell may seem to be the front-runners, we shouldn’t overestimate what this will mean come the primaries.

This latest polling also comes after it was rumoured in the Standard last week that it could cost up to £10 to take part in the primary. Originally, as part of review, Lord Collins suggested that the cost should £3 but there are ongoing discussions as to what the price will be set as.

This is a matter to decided by the National Executive Committee but they should remember that in order to get more people involved, it would be best to keep the costs as low as possible.