Not a tax cut. A tax con

“In this election, as always, there is [a] choice. You can vote for our opponents, and watch them take Britain back to the 1970s. Back to socialism…

We are pledged to cut tax rates again.”

You recognise those words, don’t you? We have heard them rather a lot in the past few days. Only these words are taken from the Conservative party manifesto of 1992. And after the election of that year, with its brutal and misleading attacks both on the personality of the Labour leader and the potential Labour programme for government, what did we get? Why, only the famous 22 Tory tax rises, which left the typical British family with an extra tax bill of £2,000 a year.

Last week David Cameron said he could find £7bn of tax cuts for British voters after the next election. While his chief whip Michael Gove told the Any Questions audience on Friday that no tax cuts could be made before 2018 at the earliest – the latest and much-shifted deadline for getting rid of the budget deficit – on his plane back from Afghanistan the prime minister was explaining that tax cuts could begin well before that.

So deep and sincere is Dave’s commitment to sound public finances that he is prepared to float the idea of £7bn of tax cuts without saying how these cuts could be afforded. And this after his government has missed its own targets for eliminating the budget deficit again and again. And again.

Naturally lobby journalists both in print and broadcast media have been absolutely tireless in their pursuit of the government on this point since Cameron’s conference speech pledge was made.

Oh, sorry. I need to rephrase that last bit. It should have read: with a few notable exceptions the lobby has decided to let Dave completely off the hook over this dodgy (non-)offer. Indeed, on the evening after Cameron’s speech Twitter was enlivened by the candid admissions of some journalists that they were not exactly being very aggressive about the manifest flakiness of the PM’s words, in contrast to their approach to Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition. As a senior Labour party source observed at the end of last week: “Imagine if we’d said – ‘We’re going to increase spending by £7bn, but we don’t know how we’re going to find the money’ – we’d have been slaughtered!”

So it was odd to see Lord Prescott describe Cameron’s tax con as a “belter” yesterday. While rightly calling for a more effective campaigning style from Labour Lord Prescott seemed also to be endorsing the Conservatives’ tactics. I do not think Labour’s credibility as a future government would be enhanced by launching similar “belters” of its own.

Worse, the recent tightening in the opinion polls seems to have tempted some members of Labour’s radical defeatist tendency into the daylight. They share their anticipatory despair with grateful reporters, who note down their every emotional spasm. It is not obvious how this contributes to Labour’s chances at the next election. Perhaps I am missing something.

Tory jubilation at finally edging a slight (and temporary?) opinion poll lead should be moderated. We will see how the polls look in a week’s time, after Ukip’s likely success in Clacton this Thursday and Labour’s probable retention of the Heywood and Middleton seat on the same day.

Behind the confident Tory front lies agitation and deep nervousness. Why else deliver an attempted pre-election give-away seven months before an election? What is left now to say in Osborne’s autumn statement and March budget speech? This isn’t about “fattening a pig before market day”. This is a slightly desperate “Hail Mary pass”  designed to create momentum. In the very short term it has done so, but at what longer term cost to the Tories’ chances? We will find out soon enough, whether or not the ladies and gentlemen of the press choose to report it.

Because, as David Cameron himself said in 2008: “You cannot talk about tax reduction unless you can show how it is paid for, the public are not stupid”.

He was right then even if he went badly wrong in his conference speech last week.