Tories heading for another embarrassing by-election defeat

UKIP are on course to double their number of MPs, with a new poll in Rochester and Strood showing Mark Reckless thirteen points clear over the Tories. Labour, meanwhile, are currently in third, lagging 21% behind.

The poll, carried out for the Daily Express, finds this is the voting intention for November 20th:

UKIP 43%, Conservatives 30%, Labour 21%, Lib Dems 3%, Greens 3%

The fact that Labour are polling tallies with the party’s decision not to make this by-election a priority. However, there has been grassroots support from activists going out and campaigning for candidate Naushabah Khan. This week, Luke Akehurst wrote that those who care about the rise of UKIP should make an effort to go and knock on doors in Rochester and Strood.

With just under a month to go, it does look like a big task for Labour to win, but with a strong ground campaign beating the Tories to second place remains a possibility. That would make sure that the media narrative is focussed on a Tory disaster (as it should be) and show Labour as a real threat in the South East.