The first UKIP-run Council is coming and we all need to get ready

UKIP watchers are fixated on which parliamentary seats could fall to the purples, but few seem to be looking at the fortunes of UKIP in local government. If the party is going to make a breakthrough, this is the electoral ground on which the tremors will be first felt. Already the ground is shifting beneath our feet.

UKIP currently have 368 Councillors, about 1/20^th the number Labour has and UKIPs presence in council chambers is patchy. They did well in the 2013 County Council elections but without coming close to taking overall control anywhere. They did reach double-digit group sizes in some Eastern and South Eastern Counties, but all that did was deny previously dominant Tories their prize.

In Basildon and Lewes – Conservative Leaders have appointed UKIP Councillors to their Cabinet but denied any suggestions these arrangements should be considered a coalition. But in most instances where UKIP could have taken decision-making roles, they’ve chosen not to opted to remain in opposition.

UKIP is making ground against Labour in the large industrial councils of the North and West Midlands. The Labour majorities in Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool etc. are so large that any immediate change in political control seems remote.

Where UKIP have been successful in building a local government base is in smaller Borough and District Councils. They have exploited the ‘by thirds’ system to build momentum. They won a presence in 2012, maintained it through in 2013 and reaped the rewards in the 2014 Local Elections.

For example:

• Great Yarmouth DC, Norfolk (Con13/Lab16/UKIP10). In 2012, Labour won 9 of the 13 contests and the Tories won the other 4. In 2014, UKIP made 10 gains (5 from Labour, 5 from Tories). A repetition of these results in 2015 would give UKIP a majority of 2.

• Basildon BC, Essex (Con17/Lab10/LD1/UKIP 12) is elected by thirds. UKIP won 11 of the 15 contests in May 2014 with the Tories netting the other 4. UKIP were, again, winning in both strong Tory and traditional Labour wards and managed to decapitate the council by taking the leader’s sear.  Repeating this in the 2014 Local Elections would give them a majority of 6.

The more interesting contests will be those Borough and District Councils in 2015 set for all-out elections in 2015. Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Staffordshire, Kent, Cambridgeshire all had large UKIP votes in 2013 and have local councils where 2015 will be the first time since 2011 that elections have been held.

These small authorities have smaller wards and smaller electorates so 50-100 votes one way or the other can be a huge influence of the results, either by delivering victory for one party or denying a win for someone else. For instance:

• Tendering BC, Essex (home of Clacton) had no UKIP Councillors elected in 2011 but will undoubtedly see huge gains in 2015.

• Waveney DC, Suffolk is the neighbouring authority to Great Yarmouth. 2011 saw a knife-edge result with the Tories having a majority of 1 over Labour but UKIP had a strong showing winning three seats in 2013. UKIP could be the king-makers in 2015.

• Boston DC, Lincolnshire has only 30 seats with the Tories holding 17. UKIP have made significant gain and won 5 of the 7 County Council seats and came within 100 votes of winning the other two.

The next big gain for UKIP is not going to be as the junior partner in some awful coalition of the right often dreamt about by the Peter Bones and Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world but capturing Councils either through landslide victories or through small and steady steps. Either way, the first UKIP run Council is coming and we all need to get ready.