Labour can’t afford to rush into renewing Trident

If Labour want to balance Britain’s books if elected next year, it cannot afford to rush into renewing the Trident nuclear system. The case for delaying the renewal and changing how our nuclear weapons defence works is greater than ever. A blind dash by the Labour party to play safe and sign up to Tory plans rather than re-think how we keep our country safe would be foolish and short-termist.

It’s important to briefly cover the basics first. Trident is a sea-based nuclear weapons system that features four submarines carrying missiles and warheads. The system is designed so there is always a submarine at sea, armed and equipped to respond to threats. It is called CASD – the Continuous At Sea Deterrence strategy.

Replacing Trident, which will be decided and finalised in 2016, will cost us enormously. An initial government estimate put the figure at between £15bn and £20bn, but didn’t take into account key factors including inflation and VAT. A study by the think-tank RUSI estimated it would cost nearer to £70bn – £80bn to build, arm and support Trident over its working life. But even that is seen as low by some, who put the final cost at nearer to £130bn. In other words, any debate on cutting government spending to balance the books cannot avoid mentioning Trident.

Yesterday marked the last day of a global conference in Vienna on the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons. Over 17,000 nuclear weapons are still estimated to exist a quarter century after the cold war ended. We’re moving, albeit painfully slowly, towards global disarmament. But it’s not good enough.

By reaffirming our faith in nuclear weapons, we help slow down the pace of global disarmament, and look hypocritical when we push other countries to abandon their own programmes. Paradoxically, our spending on nukes increases the risk of global proliferation not decrease them. If Ed Miliband is serious about pushing towards global disarmament he has to illustrate his own seriousness.

Worse are the arguments for rushing into renewing Trident as soon as possible.

For a start, Trident is painfully outdated for the national security threats we are likely to face in the future. Events of the last year prove it: a nuclear submarine is utterly useless against an enemy such as ISIS or Al-Qaeda, which more likely represent the kind of challenges we will face. The challenges posed by the likes of ISIS are that of a guerilla army that is better countered through conventional weapons and more intelligent counter-terrorism rather than WMDs.

And even during the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, our response has focused on financial sanctions than military action. And even if we wanted military action in the region, it would have been coordinated multilaterally anyway. We need to strengthen Nato, build more international alliances and strengthen UN Peacekeeping forces rather than maintain Cold War relics. And let’s be honest – Trident is very certainly a Cold War relic. Spending an enormous amount of money on a nuclear submarine hinders our capabilities by depriving other areas of funds.

So what should Labour do? For a start, it should end the commitment to CASD – which alone would save us billions of pounds. We could also delay the renewal of Trident further and stretch out existing resources rather than rushing into replacement. Even Margaret Thatcher in 1986 procured just three Trident submarines and left John Major to decide on the final one.

Such a decision would be popular too. The public is already sceptical of spending money on nuclear weapons at a time of austerity. A majority want to scrap them all-together or at least downgrade our capabilities, depending on how you ask the question. Even a majority of Labour PPC’s would like to see Trident scrapped.

And why do this? Because Trident is going to be horrendously expensive at a time when other public services are being slashed beyond the bone. Because it acts as a hindrance to nuclear disarmament and encourages other states to pursue the same technology. And because it no longer suits the world we are in and the threats we face. The decision to renew and pay for Trident is far too important to be rushed into.