Overwhelming majority of Labour members believe Burnham has improved party’s chances for next general election

The vast majority of Labour members believe Andy Burnham has improved Labour’s chances at the next general election, LabourList can reveal.

In exclusive polling of Labour members, carried out by Survation, LabourList can reveal support for Burnham’s electoral appeal spans every wing of the party, with members also expecting the next election to deliver either a hung parliament or a small majority government for Labour.

Asked whether Labour has a better or worse chance of winning the next general election with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister, 56 percent of Labour members believe the party has a much better chance of winning the next general election with Andy Burnham as leader, while 30 percent believe Labour has a somewhat better chance with Andy Burnham as leader.

Combined, 86 percent of Labour members believe Burnham to have improved Labour’s chances at the next election.

READ MORE: Third of Labour members want next Labour leader to be a woman – poll

Support stretches well beyond any single faction within Labour. More than four-fifths (83 percent) of those who voted for Keir Starmer to become party leader in 2020 believe Burnham increases the party’s chances. Among Rebecca Long Bailey voters, 94 percent feel Burnham has improved the party’s chances, while 96 percent of members who supported Lisa Nandy believe Burnham to improve Labour’s ability to win the next general election.

The view is also shared across the country. Some 87 percent of members from London believe Burnham improves Labour’s electoral chances in the next general election, rising to 94 percent of members from the North West.

Members expect victory, but most think it will be close

Despite their confidence in Burnham’s electoral appeal, Labour members are far from predicting a landslide.

Asked what they think the result of the next UK general election is most likely to be, 38 percent believe Britain will find itself with a hung parliament, where Labour forms a government, while 36 percent of members believe Labour will deliver a small majority government.

The findings suggest members largely expect Labour to win power, but by relatively narrow margins.

Members who believe Burnham improves Labour’s electoral prospects remain relatively cautious about the likely outcome. Some 40 percent who say Burnham improves Labour’s chances think the new PM only takes the party to forming a government in a hung parliament, while 37 percent think the new leader can deliver a small Labour majority.

Greens see large drop as Labour members’ biggest electoral concern

The polling also points to a significant shift in how Labour members view the political landscape.

Some 61 percent of Labour members believe Reform UK to be party’s biggest electoral threat. This has increased from 47 percent when members were polled on this question in April.

By contrast, concern about the Green Party has fallen sharply. Only one in five (20 percent) of members now believe the Green Party to be Labour’s biggest electoral threat. When polled three months ago, the Green Party was much closer to Reform UK in the minds of the Labour membership, with 40 percent of members previously considering Zack Polanski’s party Labour’s biggest threat.   

Become a friend of LabourList and join our community. Our friends support our vital non-factional work and get access to exclusive content and events. 

Meanwhile, ten percent of members now consider the Conservatives as the biggest concern to Labour, a significant rise from three percent back in April.

Winning back Green voters tops members’ electoral priorities

When asked which groups Labour should prioritise before the next general election, members place former Labour voters who have switched to the Greens ahead of every other target group.

Overall, 41 percent of Labour members think the party should spend time prioritising winning back former Labour voters that would now vote Green.

Over a quarter (28 percent) believe the party should target former Labour voters that have since switched to Reform, while 22 percent believe the party should be targeting non-voters and first-time voters.

Different parts of the membership place different emphasis on Labour’s electoral strategy.

Among members that voted for Bridget Phillipson as deputy leader, 40 percent believe the party should prioritise former Labour voters that now vote Reform, while 31 percent of these voters think Labour-to-Green voters should be prioritised.

However, among those who backed Lucy Powell as deputy, almost half (48 percent) believe Labour should focus its efforts on winning back Labour voters who have switched to the Green Party, compared to 21 percent for Labour-to-Reform voters.

Among members who hold a favourable view of Andy Burnham, 43 percent believe Labour should prioritise the Green switchers, while 27 percent would rather see the party go after those who now back Reform.

Subscribe here to our daily newsletter roundup of Labour news, analysis and comment– and follow us on TikTok, Bluesky, WhatsApp, X and Facebook. You can also write to our editor to share your thoughts on our stories and share your own. The best letters are published every Sunday.

Members overwhelmingly reject the idea of a snap election

Polling also suggests Labour members have little appetite to send the country back to the voting booths early. 

When asked if Andy Burnham should call a snap election to get his own mandate, some 85 percent of Labour members said he should not, compared with just seven percent who think he should and 8% who are unsure.

The finding reinforces the wider picture emerging from the polling. While Labour members express overwhelming confidence that Burnham would strengthen the party’s electoral prospects, they also expect the path back to government to be competitive rather than straightforward.

Emma Burnell, editor of LabourList, said: “The turnaround in the mood of the party is quite pronounced since April. It is not just Labour’s national polling that has seen a ‘Burnham bounce’ but the mood of the membership too. 

“These numbers show that Labour members are more united than they have been for some time and the vast majority are ready to give their support to Andy Burnham. 

“The question about who Labour’s key opponents are and which voters we should be prioritising are also key. There are those who argue that with Reform being our biggest electoral threat, we should be fighting on their territory and that to seek to win back Green-curious voters would be a mistake. 

“However, as by-election after by-election has shown now, the party that can unite the anti-Reform vote has the best chance of beating them. Labour are back in the lead when it comes to being that party. And it has taken that lead by winning back progressive voters.”

Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner, surveyed 812 readers of LabourList who also said they were Labour Party members between July 24 and 27.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region and 2025 deputy leadership vote. Targets for weighting were drawn from the British Election Study and the results of the leadership and deputy leadership elections.

• • SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected].
  • SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning.
  • BECOME A FRIEND: If you enjoyed this, why not consider becoming a Friend of LabourList? Help sustain our journalism, and of course Friends do get benefits…
  • PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or projects, email [email protected].
  • ADVERTISE: If your organisation would like to advertise or run sponsored pieces on LabourList‘s daily newsletter or website, contact our exclusive ad partners Total Politics at [email protected].