Polls, polls and more polls – where does Labour stand with less than four months to go?

It’s only Tuesday and since the weekend we’ve already been inundated with polls, polls and more polls. We thought the best way to absorb the different forecasts given to us by pollsters is to take a look at them altogether.

Firstly, a look at the weekend’s polling. Opinium for the Observer gave Labour a 5 point lead over the Tories – with Labour at 33% (no change since the last poll) and the Conservatives 28% (a 4 point drop). The Lib Dems are on 7%, a 1 point drop. It looks like what are the Conservatives’ and Lib Dems’ losses are Ukip’s and the Green Party’s gains. Opinium put Ukip on 20% – a three point rise – and the Greens on 6% – up by 2 points.

Lab 33% (NC), Con 28% (-)4, Ukip 20 (+3), Lib Ddem 7% (-1), Green 6% (+2)

ComRes

Meanwhile, ComRes in their polling for The Independent and the Sunday Mirror showed a slightly different picture. They gave Labour 34% but unlikely over at the Observer, the Tories are hot on our heels with 33%. This should cause no surprises, though, because it’s unchanged since the polling they did at the end of last year.

There’s also no change for Ukip, who stay on 18% (2 points less than Opinium’s poll, presumably because that’s going to the Tories). While the Lib Dems are on 7%, down one point, which looks like it’s gone to The Greens who on 3%.

Lab 34% (NC), Con 33% (NC), Ukip 18% (NC), Lib Dem 7% (-1), The Greens 3% (+1), Others   5% (NC)

YouGov

The results are progressively worse for Labour as we go through the polls. YouGov’s polling for The Sun shows Labour level with the Tories, and as with the others, Ukip in third with 15%. Interestingly, however, the Greens are only one point behind the Lib Dems with 7% and 8% respectively.

Con 32%, Lab 32%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 8%, The Greens 7%

Ashcroft 

Yesterday’s Ashcroft poll showed a bit of a different picture for the two main parties, giving the Tories a one point lead over Labour who stayed on 28%.

However, much like the other polls, the Greens were faring much better than previously. Ashcroft have them on 11% this week, up 3 points from last week and putting them ahead of the Lib Dems. Joining them in this rise are the Lib Dems on 9% and the SNP 5% – both up one point. Whereas Ukip are down one point on 15%.

Con 29% (+1) , Lab 28% (NC), UKIP 15% (-1), The Greens 11% (+3) Lib Dems 9% (+1),  SNP 5% (+1).

Guardian/ICM

That brings us to today. In line with the weekend’s polls, the latest Guardian/ICM poll also doesn’t show that much of a change. Labour are holding onto a lead on 33%, but the Tories have narrowed Labour’s lead by jumping up 2 points to 30%.

More interesting, is that the Lib Dems and Ukip have lost 3 points each, taking them both down to 11% and giving The Greens a 4 point boost to 9%.

Lab 33% (NC), Con 30% (+2), Lib Dem 11% (-3), Ukip 11% (-3), The Greens 9% (+4), Other 7% (+1).

Today’s Times Red Box had some interesting polling regarding voting intentions in May. This isn’t another poll that tells us how each party is going to fare. Instead, it’s an indicator of how likely people are going to change their minds about who they’ll vote.

Conducted by YouGov for Red Box, the poll shows Labour are best at holding on to supporters – 55% of people who say they’ll vote Labour said there was no chance of them voting for any other party. 46% said the said the same for the Tories, 45% for Ukip and 29% for the Lib Dems.

YouGov also asked if they were to give their vote to another party, which would they would choose. Interestingly, 27% of Conservative supporters said Ukip but only 10% of Labour supporters said the same.

This doesn’t mean that Ukip aren’t appealing to people who would have previously been considered traditional Labour voters but that those who are clear they support the Labour Party are far less likely than their Tory counterparts to consider voting for the anti-EU, anti-immigration party.

So where are the polls overall? It still looks like we are where we were just before Christmas – the two parties are neck and neck with Labour perhaps slightly ahead, but neither party look capable at the moment of reaching the kind of polling position where a majority is on the cards.